Economists expect reforms from ‘stable’ UPA-coalition; growth forecasts revised upward

Manmohan SinghWith a more 'politically-stable' Congress-led UPA coalition returning to power under the Prime Minister-ship of Dr. Manmohan Singh, economists anticipating greater reforms are revising upward the growth projections of GDP in India.

In their report, Morgan Stanley Research economists Chetan Ahya and Tanvee Gupta, - mentioning the investment bank's upward revision of FY10's growth projection from 4.4 percent to 5.8 percent - said: "We believe the strong political mandate will allow the new government to accelerate the pace of reforms. We are assuming higher private consumption and infrastructure spending and slightly higher trough for the private corporate capex."

As per the economists, some of the chief areas where greater progress appears to be on the cards include - the government's endeavor towards the improvement of public finances; increased infrastructure spending; and improved quality of capital inflows. In addition, the situation apparently is apt for privatization; execution of some of the long pending deregulation measures for the pension funds, retail sector and banking.

Most economists say that there are higher prospects of upward revision, with partial downside risks. More notably, they expect improvements in the government spending combination, with the share of development expenditure likely to be increased. They opine the new government will have "little incentive to take the risk of widening fiscal deficit and face a rating downgrade."