Sydney - With Australia's jobless rare expected to double to 10 per cent next year, will the crime rate double as well?

No, said Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research criminologist Don Weatherburn: it's more complex than that because the link between unemployment and crime is hard to disentangle.

"If people can't get a job immediately, they don't start getting straight into crime," he said. "But by the time they've gone for a year or two without a job, they do start drifting into crime."

According to Weatherburn, the crime scene is as complex as labour market.

Two years ago, when unemployment was at a low not seen since the Beatles topped the charts and Russia was part of the Soviet Union, around 500,000 were out of work. There were jobs going begging but Australians didn't want to take them. Migrant workers had to be brought in to fill vacancies in abattoirs and fast-food restaurants, in hospitals and hotels.

It's pretty much the same with crime. Just as the crime rate reaches a level at which no amount of prosperity seems to budge it, harder times don't get immediately reflected in higher crime.

Not that crime is a constant and criminality doesn't change with altered conditions.

"Property crime, which has gone down, could well increase as people look for easy opportunities to get money," said Bond University criminologist Paul Wilson, adding, "I think the black economy will blossom as people avoid paying GST (goods and service tax)."

He also expects an increase in recidivism, as those released from jail fall back into crime faster than they did when the economy was booming.

There are also hard-core criminals just as there are the long-term unemployed: no matter how easy it would be to go straight, the pull of the underworld is super-strong.

Ten years ago, then New South Wales police commissioner Peter Ryan noted that some preferred a life of crime regardless of other employment opportunities.

"These people are gainfully employed - stealing cars, dealing drugs, robbing petrol stations - they are very busy people."