Forex Update

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The S&P futures are set to open lower again on Monday with the S&P futures trading in the red pre-market. Friday's late session rally was encouraging in the fact that investors are starting to bite on oversold conditions, signs of a new bottom coming.

However, a high level of uncertainty is still swirling around the financial world and the problems that plagued equities last week remain unanswered. While the U. S. won't report any significant economic data until Thursday, the week is filled with keynote speeches from members of the Fed and Treasury.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

Crude futures continued their impressive rise on Friday as investors are pricing in another supply cut from OPEC at their March 15th meeting. Setting new March highs, crude futures are now approaching February highs.

While February highs and the psychological $50/bbl pose a hefty near-term struggle, if the futures can manage to break through these obstacles we should see some serious gains. However, there still is a considerable downtrend at hand. Therefore, despite increasing supply cuts from OPEC, the demand side of the equation may be too much to overcome.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The recent rally in Gold has halted and the precious metal is declining Monday despite the S&P futures trading down pre-market.  Despite the hesitation, Gold still has our 2nd tier uptrend for near-term to fall back on for the time being.  The next week of trading in Gold should prove to be important trend wise.

Gold is trying to recover from its mid-February to early-March selloff and continue its mid-term uptrend.  However, considering February highs were below 2008 highs, Gold has the potential to dip back into a downtrend. 

T-Bond Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures sold off on Friday as U.S. equities posted a late day rally.  However, it appears Friday’s downturn was merely profit taking. 

The 30 Year futures found support on our 127.8125 level and are edging up Monday with the S&P futures looking to close lower.  While the 30 Year futures are wedged between our uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines, they could be choosing the upside with no bottom in sight yet for U.S. equities.

USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The USD is higher this morning after a slow start on the defense in Asia, the majors making the best levels of the day ahead of European trade. The Greenback is making fresh highs against the majors in early New York as technical trade and cross spreaders pressure to the upside.

Overnight equities markets were lower adding to the upside as well. The big mover this morning is GBP dropping through several levels of technical support finding stops layered underneath recent lows as EURO/GBP traders sell the GBP side of the cross. Stops under 1.4050 and 1.4000 area gave way to a test of the 1.3950 area and stops were larger on the dip traders say suggesting that lots of bulls came to the table near the 1.4000 area last week.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Rate follows-on lower on stops under the 1.4050 area in size, cross-spreaders selling the GBP side of the spreads. Buy point around 1.4000 area in my view.

Reversal off weekly highs a negative technical; is it a bear trap? Likely an upside rally is still in the works but the rate needs to hold the 1.4000 area with some confidence early this week. Middle East names likely on the bid on this dip but no confirm yet. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action.

Long-term tech resistance now at 1.5000 area likely to cap near term but stops are building above and the 1.5000 handle is a big psychological number. 23 year lows are very likely to hold on any break with initial support now at 1.3900 in play.

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