Analysis warns Current Pledges will not avoid Climate Change

Current pledges of government to curbgreenhouse gas emissions are not sufficient to keep global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius, the limit which could avoid disastrous climate change, according to an analysis of climate action plans presented to the United Nations (UN). The analysis reported that the plans will be effective in slowing down carbon emissions, but they would not be enough toprevent climate change.

The climate action plans have been submitted by 146 nations. The new analysis has been represented a few weeks before Paris’ climate change talks in December, where delegates from more than 190 countries will decide how to deal with climate change in future. As per the UN, total emissions will keep on growing, but at a slower rate than it was in the past.

About not meeting the two degree Celsius limit, the UN said thenational climate plans, known as ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)’ will be a start to attain great reductions in the future. Several countries around the world have started to implement plans to deal with climate change, and these plans could slow global emissions, it added.

In the run-up to Copenhagen, just 27 countries announced pledges that contained “concrete mitigation targets” for cutting greenhouse gases, according to Taryn Fransen of the World Resources Institute. But this time around, more than 100 countries have made pledges, including many developing nations, she said.

However, the United Nations’ assessment is sobering. If all of the INDCs are implemented, then global emissions will stand at roughly 55 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalents annually by 2025, and 57 gigatons by 2030, the report states. That’s an increase from current levels of about 48 gigatons in 2010.

“The foundation has been poured, but to build from this the Paris agreement must deliver transparency and accountability against these pledges, and ensure that countries accelerate their ambition over time,” added the Nature Conservancy’s director of international government relations Andrew Deutz in reaction to the new report.

Almost 200 governments agreed in 2010 to limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial times, meaning Paris will have to agree ways to increase action in coming years. Temperatures have already gained by about 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.6 Fahrenheit).

Friday's report is the most authoritative attempt to sum up the impact of INDCs and was welcomed by financial investment groups.

"Strong national plans provide the kind of vital market signals required from policy makers if investors are to curb the risk of stranded assets in the fossil fuel sector and to make the huge investments in low-carbon technologies," said Stephanie Pfeifer, chief executive of the International Investors Group on Climate Change.

National strategies would restrict a rise in world emissions to the equivalent of 56.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2030, four billion less than expected without the extra action, from 49.0 billion in 2010, it said.

In a statement, Christiana Figueres,Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said, “These INDCs represent a clear and determined down-­payment on a new era of climate ambition from the global community of nations. Fully implemented, these plans together begin to make a significant dent in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions”.