Events to Watch This Week:

1. India: WPI Inflation  (14 Oct)

2. US: Factory Orders Data  (15  Oct)

3. UK:Jobless Claim Data (16 Oct)

4. US: CPI (17 Oct)

5. China: GDP Data (18 Oct)

NIFTY- 6,096

CRUDE OIL-Rs 6,207/barrel

GOLD-Rs 28,365 /10 gram

Rs/$-Rs 61.07

MARKET ROUND UP:
30 Sensex up 3.1% to close at 20,528  during the week ended. Nifty moved up by 3.2% to close at 6,096  during the same period.

Rupee Update:  The Indian rupee closed strong against the US dollar on Friday, aided by optimism in the financial markets that foreigners will bring more dollar funds to the country on early signs of economic recovery.

The partially convertible currency closed at 61.08 per dollar, up 0.46% from its previous close of 61.36 per dollar.

Since January this year, the rupee has weakened 9.96% and is the third worst performer in Asia after the Japanese yen and Indonesian rupiah. From its all-time low of 68.85 on 28 August, the rupee has rebounded over 11%.

So far this year, foreigners have invested $13.89 billion in the Indian equity markets. Foreign inflows are crucial to finance the current account deficit, which the government is striving to contain at 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year 2014. The deficit was 4.9% of GDP in the June quarter but is likely to narrow on steps taken by the government to boost exports and cut imports.

Economy News :
1. Trade deficit narrows most in 30 months India's exports recorded its third successive month of expansion growing by 11.15% YoY in Sep'13 while imports, aided by plunging gold consignments that barely trickled in, fell 18.10% YoY narrowing the trade deficit to a 30-month low of $6.7 bn.

2. IMF cuts India's growth forecast to 3.8% for 2013 The IMF reduced its 2013 growth forecast for India to 3.8%, from a July prediction of 5.6% and its 2014 prediction to 5.1% from 6.3%, after it reduces forecast for other emerging market economy.

3. Index of Industrial Production ( IIP) growth slowed to 0.6 per cent in August from an upwardly revised 2.75 per cent pace in July, hurt by weak investment and consumer demand, government data showed on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an annual output growth of 2.0 per cent for the month.

International News:
1. IMF cuts global growth forecast for 2013 IMF now expects global output to expand just 2.9% down from its July estimate of 3.1%, making it the slowest year of growth since 2009. IMF said that stronger growth in most advanced economies would fail to make up for a more sluggish expansion in the developing world.

2. China's HSBC service PMI slows in Sep Growth in China's services industry for Sep'13 dipped to 52.4 from August's 52.8, still well above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction, indicating that the nascent recovery in the world's No. 2 economy is likely to remain a slow one.

3. Obama signals openness to short term debt limit increase U. S. President Barack Obama said he could accept a temporary reprieve from the partial government shutdown and threat of a U. S. default while he negotiates with Republican leaders over fiscal and health policy.

Sectorial Update
Providing relief, manufacturers and importers of electronic items have been given three months more to get compulsory government clearance to sell goods. The government has extended the deadline of Requirement for Compulsory Registration Order for the third time by three months to January 3, 2014. Electronics and Information Technology Goods (Requirements for Compulsory Registration) Order, 2012 had come into effect on July 3, 2013 which mandates compliance to Indian safety standards for 15 notified categories of electronic goods. These electronic goods are video games, laptop/ notebook/ tablets,plasma/LCD/LED TVs, optical disc players, printers, electronic music systems, Set Top Box, among others

The sharp reduction in reserve price of spectrum of up to 62% by telecom regulator TRAI have been questioned by an internal panel of Department of Telecommunications in its report. The internal panel of DoT, headed by Member (Technology), has suggested that "Trai may be requested to reconsider the recommended reserve price..." for sharp reduction that regulator has made for 2G spectrum to be put up for sale in the proposed third round of auction. For 2G spectrum in 1800 Mhz band that were freed from cancellation of 122 telecom licences, Trai has recommended about 37% reduction in base price and for 900 Mhz -- premium 2G band -- the regulator recommended sharp reduction of about 62% compared to the last reserve price. Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) had justified the reduction in spectrum price and showed various scientific methodologies to arrive at a final price. The DoT panel for 1800 Mhz spectrum price, however, said "Deviation of various constants, co-efficient and variables to arrive at the reserve price under different approached appears to be based on certain assumptions, on which no clarity could emerge from recommendation."

RESULTS  Update:
1. India's second biggest software exporter, Infosys has reported lower than expected profit for second quarter ended Sept. 30, 2013. On the positive side, the revenues came above expectations. It also raised revenue guidance for full year that fueled , The company reported net profit of Rs 24.07 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2013, registering a rise of 1.39% sequentially and 1.6% rise year-on-year basis. However, profit missed analysts estimate of Rs 26.14 billion.

2. TTK Prestige: A maker of kitchen appliances, has reported a marginal increase of 0.07% in standalone second quarter earnings. It earned profit of Rs 303 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2013 as compared to profit of Rs 302.8 million, a year ago.

3. Goa Carbon reported a sharp fall of 89.20% in profit for the quarter ended September 30, 2013. The company posted Rs 11.91 million in the current quarter as compared with Rs 110.36 million in the corresponding quarter last year 06-SEP-13 ICRA has reaffirmed the BBB rating assigned to the Rs 510 million long-term fund-based bank limits of Goa Carbon (GCL) However, the outlook on the long-term rating has been revised to 'Negative'

Corporate News Update: 
1. SCI sells bulk carrier 'm. v. Maharashtra'

2. Lotus Global sells 0.97% stake in Ashok Leyland to Hinduja

3. Corporation bank cuts lending rates on home and auto loans

4. Crompton Greaves opens new office in Dubai

5. Bosch announces temporary suspension of manufacturing at two units

6. 'Ohm Labs clearance to ease some concerns on Ranbaxy'

7. Elder Pharma appoints Alok Saxena as MD & CEO

8. Coal India registers 9.6% growth in coal production 

9. Canara Bank raises USD 500 mn 

10. Havells India launches new air fryer 'Prolife'

11. Glenmark files lawsuit in US court for Hydrocortisone Butyrate cream 

12. Kalpataru Power bags orders worth Rs 6.20 bn   10-Oct-2013

13. RIL, Petroleos De Venezuela to evaluate development plan for Ayacucho

14. CRISIL downgrades Indian Overseas Bank rating 

15. TBZ opens first 'TBZ-The Original' store in Udaipur 

16. ING Vysya Bank selects IBM MobileFirst to support business growth 

17. Induslnd Bank opens 3 new branches in Vadodara 

18. IL&FS Engg to raise Rs 3 bn via rights issue

19. OnMobile names Rentala Chandrashekhar as additional director

20. Jignesh Shah, Joseph Massey resign from MCX-SX board 

21. M&M launches 7th edition of Baja SAEIndia 2014

22. Aasia Exports buys 1.94% stake in HGS

23. Ratnakar Bank sells 5.73% stake in Amar Remedies

24. McNally Bharat bags order worth Rs 138.2 mn 

MAJOR SECTORAL GAINERS:
Realty  - 8.7%

CG - 5.8%

Teck  - 5.3%

Auto - 4.3%

Power - 2.0%

MAJOR SECTORAL LOSERS:

Metal  -0.10%

MAJOR GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:
DHFL  - 28.54%

IL&FS ENGG - 23.83%

GMR INFRA  - 19.02%

NCC - 18.33%

WEEKLY LAGGERS:

Era Infra
-22.5%

PVR
-9.52%

Elder Pharma
-8.89%

Coal India
-8.87%

Jubilant Foods
-8.26%

TREND IN GLOBAL MARKET DURING THE WEEK:
DOW JONES   1.09%

FTSE -  0.52%

DAX  - 1.18%

CAC - 1.14%

NIKKEI - 2.17%

HANGE SENG - 0.34%

SHANGHAI - 2.46%

SENSEX - 3.10%

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday
US Mkts Close (Columbus Day)

Tuesday
Empire State Mfg

Wednesday
CPI Data

Thursday
Jobless Claim

Friday
Leading Indicator

FII TREND DURING THE WEEK:
(Figures in Crore)

7/10/2013 - 494

8/10/2013 - 226

9/10/2013 - 326

10/10/2013 - 614

11/10/2013 - 1010

Fundamental Picks of the Week:
1. Canara Bank Target 270

2. DCB Target Rs 60

TECHNICALS:

S3 - 5, 840
S2 - 5, 930
S1 - 5,980
NIFTY - 6,096
R1 - 6,140
R2 - 6,230
R3 - 6,280

Technically, the fight between bulls and bears are quite interesting in the range of 5700 and 6140 levels. One is advised to note that, if NIFTY gives a sustained break above 6140 levels, then the uptrend could strengthen and continue in medium term scenario. We broke out the key resistance level of 5980 and closed near its psychological level of 6100 suggesting that buying momentum in the NIFTY. Tracking the momentum in the markets, the Nifty has immediate resistance in the range of 6140 - 6190 levels, sustaining above which Nifty can head towards 6240 and 6340 levels. On the downside, the prior resistance level of 5980/5930 will now act as a key support level for NIFTY. Breakout of 5930 would invite further selling pressure and then 5850/5790 is possible. It is important to note that the market is likely to take cues from August IIP data & Inflation data for direction in near term. So, Short term traders are advised to hold long positions with keeping stop loss at 5980.

CONCLUSION:

Market is expected to remain volatile. The rally we have seen is purely a technical pull back. One should sell on rise and should keep booking profit. There is no change in the inherent fundamentals of the economy.

Wait for the correction to buy into the market.

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