USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.31.09

The USD/JPY continues its sideways battle as investors await the incoming Tankan Manufacturing Index. Japan released some mixed data earlier today, including worse than expected Unemployment and Average Cash Earnings numbers.

On the flipside, Household Spending declined less than expected. Despite the encouraging Household Spending number, the data coming from Japan reiterates the same negative theme. Though new economic stimulus seems imminent, Aso and the BOJ aren't budging as the G20 Summit approaches.

The inactivity from the BOJ combined with discouraging economic data is sending the USD/JPY back towards the crest of February highs. However, it seems investors will wait for the Tankan Index before deciding whether to send the currency pair towards 100. The USD/JPY's incessant battle with February highs indicates the significance of present levels.

If the Tankan is much worse than expected, then we could see the USD/JPY launch out of its trading range towards new highs.

However, don't forget the downtrend is nearby. If the USD/JPY fails to retest 100 this time around, we could see the currency pair collapse back into its debilitating downtrend. Fundamentally, we see resistances of 99.06, 99.79, 100.28, 100.71, and 101.44.

To the downside, we find supports of 98.16, 97.66, 96.65, and 95.98. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 98.54.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.31.09

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