Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.16.09
The 30 Year T-Bond futures are topping out again despite a lack of significant movement from U. S. equities. The 30 Year is obeying its downtrend, and its decline could be a cause for concern if there isn't a counterbalancing rally in the S&P futures.
We still haven't seen that follow through to the upside in either the 30 or 10 Year futures after March's furious rally.
Therefore, even though the Fed has already purchased over $50 Billion worth of government debt, the level of quantitative easing combined with normal investor purchase of debt may not be sufficient to counter to the massive supply required for America's economic stimulus package.
The movement, or lack thereof, in the 30 Year futures is certainly discouraging, and could soon ignite fear that the amount of quantitative easing may need to be increased.
That being said, the 30 Year futures are clearly locked into their downtrend and would need a large reversal to the upside to alter their path.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 127.28, 127.64, 127.89, 128.31, and 128.73. To the downside, we hold our supports of 127.04 126.69, 126.27, and 125.90 with fresh bottom-end of 125.5. The 30 Year T-Bond futures are presently trading at 127 02.5.
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