Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are dropping after our trend lines experienced an inflection point. The weakness in Treasury futures comes in reaction to soaring U. S. equity markets.

However, Treasuries aren't exercising their negative correlations with equities to the full extent, logging only marginal losses compared to the 7% gain in the S&P. Regardless, the 30 Year futures are heading back into the February trading zone with which competed with for quite some time.

Even though the 30 Year futures are clearly below our downtrend line, we must consider the fact that the most significant volume day we've seen in a while came last week on an up-bar after the U. S. initiated quantitative easing.

Therefore, the 30 Year futures do have the potential to turn the tide to the upside if U. S. equities were to plunge. However, considering equities are riding high on the toxic asset plan with the S&P finally over 800, the idea of a large retreat in equities seems far-fetched right now.

Although, the U. S. will release its Final GDP on Thursday, and if the number is highly negative then the 30 Year can get a nice bump to the upside.

All in all, the trend is still negative on the 30 Year futures until they can climb past our downtrend and attack last week's highs.

Fundamentally, we see resistance of 128.39 with additional resistances hanging at 128.84, 129.54, and 130.02.

To the downside, we find supports of 127.92, 127.29, 126.73, and 126.22. The 30 Year Treasury Bond futures are currently trading at 128 04.0.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

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