Manila - A peace agreement between the Philippine government and Muslim secessionist rebels is unlikely to be attained under the tenure of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a security analyst and a rebel negotiator said Monday.

Peace talks between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the government have been suspended since August last year when hostilities between the rebels and the military escalated in the strife-torn southern region of Mindanao.

The violence erupted after the Supreme Court stopped the signing of a key agreement that would have expanded an existing Muslim autonomous region in Mindanao.

"She (Arroyo) does not have the political will to push for an agreement," MILF peace negotiator Michael Mastura told a forum with the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines. "There is no serious analysis needed to say that we will not be able to sign anything."

Mastura said Arroyo, whose term will end in June 2010, is already a "lame duck president" and has missed the opportunity to attain a political settlement in the more-than-30-year-old Muslim insurgency in Mindanao.

He added that ongoing efforts by the government to revive the peace negotiations will not lead anywhere.

"We will just be going around in circles," Mastura said.

Sidney Jones, South-East Asia senior adviser of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, boldly predicted in the same forum that "there will be no peace agreement in 2009."

"I don't think the Philippine government has addressed the conflict in Mindanao as seriously as it should," she said, noting that it has failed to neutralize "spoilers" in the negotiations such as politicians and military officials.

More than 200 people have been killed in the fighting between the MILF guerrillas and government troops since the non-signing of the key agreement in August 2008. More than 500,000 people have also been displaced by the hostilities.

The MILF is the largest Muslim rebel group fighting for a separate Islamic state in the southern region of Mindanao. It has been waging the secessionist struggle since 1978, but entered into peace negotiations with the government in 1997. (dpa)