NALCO, NMDC, SAIL, HPCL, Coal India Shares Gain While IREDA, RCF and Power Grid Share Price Remains Range-bound
NALCO, NMDC, SAIL, HPCL and Coal India were among major gainers in Public Sector segment in today's trading session. While IREDA, RCF and Power Grid shares closed almost flat after a range-bound trading session. Many of the public sector stocks were in strong demand as investors were bullish on these stocks as Indian government is planning major infrastructure and railways spending.
Indian markets closed slightly negative today but Indian traders have witnessed higher volatility this week. As the world markets deal with volatility caused by sudden decisions taken by US President about tariffs, investors are concerned about the near term market reactions. US President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico but delayed the decision for Canada and Mexico after taking to their respective governments. China is still facing tariffs and the Asian manufacturing giant has also announced tariffs and restrictions on US products entering the Chinese market. World markets could face heightened volatility till the time this issue settles.
Quick Review and Technical Levels for Some of the Top Performing PSUs
NALCO: NALCO is trading below its key retracement level of Rs 203.88, indicating potential resistance around Rs 214.75 (38.2% level).
NMDC: NMDC may find support near Rs 64.47, with a potential upside if the price breaches Rs 77.07.
SAIL: SAIL has immediate support around Rs 106.68 and a key resistance near Rs 137.51.
HPCL: HPCL shows potential upward movement if it crosses Rs 389.77, with strong support near Rs 295.37.
Coal India: Coal India is consolidating near Rs 385.10. A break above Rs 444.02 could indicate further gains.
IREDA: IREDA may face selling pressure near Rs 224.47, with support around Rs 192.50.
RCF: RCF is expected to face resistance around Rs 181.55, while support remains at Rs 158.00.
Power Grid: Power Grid is testing support at Rs 284.55 and could rally if it crosses Rs 312.50.
Fibonacci Levels
| Stock | High | Low | 23.6% | 38.2% | 50% | 61.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NALCO | Rs 262.99 | Rs 130.25 | Rs 161.58 | Rs 180.96 | Rs 196.62 | Rs 212.28 |
| NMDC | Rs 95.45 | Rs 59.70 | Rs 68.14 | Rs 73.36 | Rs 77.58 | Rs 81.79 |
| SAIL | Rs 175.35 | Rs 99.66 | Rs 117.52 | Rs 128.57 | Rs 137.50 | Rs 146.44 |
| HPCL | Rs 457.15 | Rs 295.37 | Rs 333.55 | Rs 357.17 | Rs 376.26 | Rs 395.35 |
| Coal India | Rs 543.55 | Rs 361.25 | Rs 404.27 | Rs 430.89 | Rs 452.40 | Rs 473.91 |
| IREDA | Rs 310.00 | Rs 121.05 | Rs 165.64 | Rs 193.23 | Rs 215.53 | Rs 237.82 |
| RCF | Rs 245.00 | Rs 118.40 | Rs 148.28 | Rs 166.76 | Rs 181.70 | Rs 196.64 |
| Power Grid | Rs 366.25 | Rs 257.65 | Rs 283.28 | Rs 299.14 | Rs 311.95 | Rs 324.76 |
India’s Gold Imports Rise by 5% in 2024 Amid Surging Investment Demand
India’s gold imports reached 802.8 tonnes in 2024, reflecting a 5% increase compared to the previous year. The rise in demand was driven primarily by high investment activity and significant purchases by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, high gold prices led to a 2% decline in jewellery demand, with total consumption amounting to 563.4 tonnes. Investment demand surged 29% to 239.4 tonnes, fueled by the underperformance of domestic stock markets and broader economic uncertainty.
Gold Imports and Demand Trends
Import Figures:
India’s gold imports rose to 802.8 tonnes, marking a 5% year-on-year increase. This growth was primarily driven by increased investment in gold as a safe haven during a volatile economic environment.
Jewellery Demand Declines:
Despite higher imports, jewellery demand saw a 2% decline, falling to 563.4 tonnes for the year. High gold prices discouraged consumers from making significant purchases, particularly in the December quarter.
Investment Demand Surges Amid Economic Uncertainty
29% Growth in Investment Demand:
Investment demand for gold increased by 29% in 2024, reaching 239.4 tonnes. The final quarter alone recorded a 14% increase to 76 tonnes. This surge was attributed to rising gold prices and underwhelming returns in other asset classes, including equities.
Stock Market Performance:
Domestic stock markets saw a lacklustre first half of the year and experienced a significant correction after reaching record highs in September. This market turbulence prompted investors to shift towards gold as a stable store of value.
RBI’s Gold Purchases and Forex Reserve Composition
Massive Increase in RBI Gold Holdings:
The Reserve Bank of India added 73 tonnes of gold to its foreign exchange reserves in 2024, marking a four-and-a-half-fold increase over the 16 tonnes acquired in 2023. This significant addition highlights the central bank's strategy to diversify and protect its reserves amidst global economic uncertainties.
Gold's Share in Forex Reserves:
With these purchases, gold’s share in India's foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high of 11%. This underscores the growing importance of gold as a hedge against currency and market risks in the central bank's asset allocation.
Jewellery Demand During Peak Festival and Wedding Seasons
Fourth-Quarter Performance:
India’s fourth-quarter jewellery demand declined by 5% to 189.8 tonnes, primarily due to elevated gold prices. Full-year jewellery demand stood at 563 tonnes, a 2% reduction compared to 2023.
Seasonal Buying Patterns:
The fourth quarter witnessed concentrated demand during late October, coinciding with the Diwali festival and the wedding season in November. During this period, a brief correction in gold prices temporarily stimulated jewellery purchases, though sustained high prices continued to dampen overall demand.
