Commodity Trading Tips for Crude Oil by KediaCommodity
Crudeoil settled up 0.36% at 6410 gained at a slow pace as investors monitor developments in Iraq for the potential of supply disruptions. Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to fighting in Iraq lingered, as the conflict between Sunni Islamist insurgents and Iraqi army forces continued on Thursday. Fighting in the Iraqi city of Baquba, located to the northeast of Baghdad, shut down the country's biggest oil refinery on Wednesday. Iraq produced approximately 3.5mbls a day of oil last month, making it OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia. Data released earlier showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region expanded at a faster rate than expected in June. A separate report showed that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending June 14 declined by 6k to a seasonally adjusted 312k from the previous week’s revised total of 318k. On Wednesday, the Fed cut its bond purchases by another $10 billion a month to $35 billion, saying there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to continue tapering. Despite this, the Fed also lowered its forecast for growth this year to a range of 2.1% to 2.3% from 2.8 to 3.0% previously, due to "unexpected contractions" in the first quarter as a result of the unusually harsh winter. The central bank said it expects the federal-funds rate, currently close to zero, to reach 1.2% by the end of next year and 2.5% by the end of 2016, a slightly faster rate of tightening than formerly expected. Technically market is under fresh buying and getting support at 6361 and below same could see a test of 6312 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6441, a move above could see prices testing 6472.
Trading Ideas:
Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6312-6472.
Crude oil prices gains as the United States said it could send military advisers to Iraq, raising concerns about the escalating conflict.
If the 300,000 barrels per day refinery stays closed, Baghdad will need to import more oil products to meet its own domestic consumption
Concerns the crisis will escalate and disrupt oil production sent prices higher, though Iraq's major oilfields still remain far south of the fighting