S&P Daily Commentary for 3.23.09

The S&P futures are posting solid gains after the government released the details of its much anticipated plan to deal with toxic assets. However, the futures are presently showing some hesitation as investors await the Existing Home Sales data.

Despite current gains, the S&P futures are still below March 19 highs, our 3rd tier downtrend line, and the highly psychological 800 level. Hence, there are several near-term landmines lying in the path of the S&P's trajectory upwards. The futures are at a pivot point considering they could easily duck back into their incessant downtrend tendency or catapult above 800. As a result, we expect high volatility in the coming trading sessions especially with the U. S.

revealing its Final GDP later this week. As a result, despite the rampant optimism in equity markets, we are not out of the woods yet. Correlation wise, crude futures are edging down while the 30 Year T-Bond futures are strengthening, both negative signs for the daily performance of the S&P futures. It will be interest to see how U. S. equities finish the session.

Analysts will sift through the toxic asset plan while looking for faults. At first glance, the plan appears complex and exposes the U. S. to greater losses as far as toxic assets are concerned.

Therefore, there could be increasing uncertainty over whether the plan will be successful, and we may need to see concrete results in economic data and bank earnings for investors to buy into the plan. Fundamentally, we find resistance of 782.5 with additional resistances hanging at 789.25, 794.5, 804, 812.75 and 818.75.

To the downside, we see supports of 775, 765.25, 758.25, and 748. The 800 level serves as a psychological barrier and 750 as a cushion. The S&P futures are currently trading at 782.75.

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