Prague  - The notorious Czech provocateur of an artist, David Cerny, had the privilege last summer to shake hands with Condoleezza Rice, the then US secretary of state.

Passing an alley of garbage cans to do so, she showed up at one of Prague's many popular yet downscale cafes which happened to double as a centre for supporters of US plans to build a missile shield base in the Czech Republic, Cerny among them.

But when US President Barack Obama arrives in the Czech capital this weekend, Cerny and his associates won't get near that sort of access. "It does not look good," the artist said.

The Czech Republic no longer seems to be among US' darlings in Europe, as had been the case under the administration of the previous president, George W Bush.

Consider the "mild" disappointment in Prague's corridors of power that the Obamas opted for a romantic private dinner on Saturday, turning down separate invitations by both Czech President Vaclav Klaus and acting Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek.

On the one hand, Klaus does not believe that global warming is man-made, while Obama is expected to join forces with Europe on fighting climate change. On the other, Topolanek recently billed Obama's economic policy "a road to hell."

Sources insist that the presidential couple made the dinner plans before the premier's explosive comment (surprisingly uttered a day after his government fell last week).

And, officials say, the Obamas simply may need a break following busy schedules that included a closely-watched summit of the Group of 20 (G20) industrialized and emerging economies in London and celebrations of NATO's 60th anniversary in Germany and France.

But others offer a blunt explanation.

"Obama's goal is ... to have a picture taken with (former Czech president and anti-Communist resistance icon) Vaclav Havel," said political scientist and former Havel adviser Jiri Pehe. "I don't want to be cruel but present-day Czech politicians do not interest him at all."

Gone are the times when Bush's first defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld invented the phrase "New Europe," a rather inaccurate term describing ex-Soviet countries that backed the US-led invasion of Iraq.

Obama's administration is not expected to cut bilateral deals - be it on military bases or visas - with some of the new members of the European Union who were little concerned about earning an image of Trojan-Horse-style spoilers of European unity.

"That is over. This administration decided not to play favourites, use one country to undermine the EU," said Pehe, who heads the Prague-branch of New York University.

Poland, another host of the proposed US missile shield's European arm and a close US ally, also worries about the impact of Obama's new approach to Europe.

The question the officials in Warsaw ask is whether Obama will stick to Bush's promises of military aid made in exchange for the Polish missile defence base, the project pushed by the Bush administration that has irked Russia.

"We'd still like to have a special relation with the US, and from there comes the disquiet - if the missile shield is taken away, then what else does Poland have to offer?" said Jacek Kucharczyk, research director at the Warsaw-based Institute of Public Affairs.

In a highlight of the Prague visit, Obama is to address Europeans in the five-country tour's only speech before the public, another potential source of disappointment as sources say that he is likely not to utter what Czechs are waiting for.

Czechs and Poles hope that Obama would give a clear verdict on the fate of the planned bases, which have been backed by their governments but unpopular with the public. Instead, he is expected to talk nuclear arms non-proliferation.

Still, excited crowds are expected to fill up historic Hradcansky square next to the stately Prague Castle.

"I can't grasp what I am about to experience," said Jiri Hlupy, a 76-year-old film set designer and one of the few resident's of the square. "The president of the United States will give a speech here. I can listen to him from my doorstep."

And even the downcast missile-shield activists like Cerny, who still hopes that Obama will not make up with Russia at Eastern Europe's expense, view the visit as a success.

"It's a miracle that he is paying us a visit, after all," he said. "He could have gone to Brussels." dpa