Equity indices: Nifty continues to remain in a trading band and thus makes no significant impact to our earlier outlook. We prefer to be reactive than proactive in giving a clear trend directional call at this point. But having said that, every passing day serves us as a guiding light to what can be forecasted in the near future. We had projected earlier that the index may vacillate with no clear directional thrust and thus sending confusing signals. This stance still persists even after Friday’s weekly close.
The positive news for the bulls is that sharp intermittent rallies were observed last week near 5400 level suggesting that bearish fatigue is setting in finally. This may bode well for the technical structure of the index in the medium term. Midcap Index continues to exhibit positive divergences indicating that possibilites of a serious downside are minimal. We prefer continuing with our cautious stance as we close the week.
Commodities: The uptrend of Aluminium is dented and it may see further declines. Copper has the best possibility of an upside breakout amongst base metals. Zinc remains sideways and could see more declines in the coming week. In bullion, Gold can trade sideways and Silver too can continue to drift sideways but with a negative bias. Crude is likely to sustain upside strength above $102 and may target higher levels.
Currencies: Dollar/Rupee is moving sideways in a trading range with a negative bias. Euro/Dollar is likely to drift higher closer to 1.4200 level. Dollar/Yen is a wait and watch. The DXY continues to drift lower.
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