Gold Daily Commentary for 4.1.09
Gold is rallying Wednesday, following the appreciation of the Euro and the Pound. The correlation between Gold and the EUR/USD and GBP/USD is becoming clearer by the day.
However, the correlation is odd since these two currency pairs are positively correlated with the S&P futures when Gold is normally negatively correlated with U. S. equities.
As a result, Gold is opting to exhibit a positive correlation with U. S. equities, a strange occurrence we've witnessed periodically throughout the economic crisis.
Gold has normally shown a positive correlation with the S&P futures during large legs down in the past, which could be foreboding for U. S. equities.
Technically speaking, the precious metal is trading well above our 1st tier uptrend line while approaching our 2nd tier. Gold managed to avoid retesting $900/oz, so the uptrend is safe for the time being.
However, the near-term downtrend line is approaching, and it will be interesting to see Gold's reaction once it reaches an inflection point with our 2nd tier uptrend line.
Fundamentally we see resistances of $928.16/oz, $930.72/oz, $933.86/oz, $936.14/oz, and $939.27/oz. To the downside, find supports of $924.74/oz, $922.45/oz, $919.32/oz, and $916.98/oz. Gold is currently trading at $925.85/oz.
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