Turmeric June contract on weekly basis showed 5.82% gains due to a drop in daily supplies and some overseas inquiries.
· Supplies have dropped and are expected to be in this range in the short-term.
· Turmeric output is estimated to be lower this year because of reduced plantation area in leading cultivating states.
· Demand from North India is yet to pick up and that is preventing prices from rising.
· Delayed arrival of Monsoon could have adverse implications on the overall rains in the Southern states which have been receiving less rains over last few years.
· Turmeric arrivals slumped to 7,000-8,000 bags in Nizamabad, from 15,000-20,000 bags in the previous week.
Mustardseed yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.97% up at 3541 tracking firmness in spot demand on depleting supplies in spot markets. Arrivals in physical markets are gradually improving which may also not allow prices to see any sharp upside movement. The Industry estimated 71.5 Lakh tons of RMseed production this year. As per market sources, restricted supplies by farmers at lower levels along with strong supplies of wheat at higher rates might have reduced the total mustard seed arrivals in all the major producing states.
Wheat yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.52% up at 1535 continuing its positive trend tracking firmness in spot demand after prices dropped in expectation of a higher new crop. Wheat procurement in the 2013-14 crop marketing year that started on April 1 is expected to culminate at 26-28 million tonnes (mt), a good 10-12 mt less than last year and almost 60 per cent less than the initial estimate of 44 mt. Madhya Pradesh had fixed a target of purchasing nine mt of wheat this year, of which till Wednesday, it has managed to purchase around 5.87 mt.
Crude Palm Oil yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.83% up at 471.4 tracking gains in spot demand and overseas prices as investor sentiment brightened for exports to recover in the second half of May. Shipments of palm oil fell between 3 percent and 8 percent over the period May 1 to 15 from the corresponding April period, fanning concerns that demand for the tropical oil is slowing, but traders said the decline was smaller than expected and exports could pick up in the coming weeks.
Ref Soyaoil yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.19% up at 698.5 tracking gains in spot demand on a weak rupee. As per the data released by SEA of India, the export of oil meals during April 2013 is heavily reduced to 199,168 tons compared to 403,090 tons in April 2012 i.e. down by 51% mainly due to disparity in crushing and high prices of soybean resulted into less availability for the export. Oil mills are expecting an improvement in demand due to Ramadan in the coming weeks from bulk consumers.
Aluminium yesterday traded up 0.45% at 100.65 as demand is strong despite record-high inventories of the metal, and will be further buoyed in coming years. A weak aluminum price outlook may lead to further cuts at high-cost Chinese aluminum smelters. US initial jobless claims jumped to 360,000 in the week ended May 11. The US posted a 1.1% growth in CPI in April, below expectations. These data helped reduce possibility of asset purchases cuts by the US Federal Reserve for the immediate term. The US economic results announced yesterday were disappointing. The April housing starts fell 16.5% to 853,000, below market expectations, but building permits beat market estimate, up 14.3%.
Jeera June contract gained Rs 165 and settled at Rs 13347.5 per quintal on export demand and a decline in the local supplies. Improvement in overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. However, higher output may cap sharp gains. Export demand is expected to improve in the coming weeks because of a lack of supplies from Syria and Turkey. The total arrivals decreased to 13,000 bags from 14,000 bags, while demand was seen around 15,000 bags against 20,000 bags. Better crop expectations and high arrivals in the market may turn the trend in near term. Good sowing reports from Gujarat and Rajasthan keeps the production prospects good.
Naturalgas yesterday settled down by -3.23% at 215.50 came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday, falling 3% after a report from the U.S. EIA showed natural gas supplies rose more than expected last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended May 10 rose by 99bcf, above expectations for an increase of 95bcf. Inventories rose by 30bcf in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 69bcf. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.964 trillion cubic feet as of last week.
Turmeric yesterday we have seen that market has moved 4% due to a drop in daily supplies and some overseas inquiries. Supplies have dropped and are expected to be in this range in the short-term. Turmeric output is estimated to be lower this year because of reduced plantation area in leading cultivating states. Demand from North India is yet to pick up and that is preventing prices from rising. Delayed arrival of Monsoon could have adverse implications on the overall rains in the Southern states which have been receiving less rains over last few years. Turmeric arrivals slumped to 7,000-8,000 bags in Nizamabad, from 15,000-20,000 bags in the previous week.
Chana gained Rs 39 and settled at Rs 3459 per quintal due to a pick-up in local buying in the wedding season, though estimates of record high output and new season supplies restricted the upside. Supplies from the new season crop are coming in from the states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. However, traders expect these to slow down as the peak season is about to end. Some value buying is seen in chana futures but in the medium term prices could fall because production estimates are high. Chana output is expected to be 8.49 million tonnes in 2012/13 as per the agriculture ministry's third advance estimate as against 7.70 million tonnes a year earlier.
Soyabean yesterday we have seen that market has moved -0.85% on an expected increase in the area under cultivation and weak exports demand from soymeal. Demand for both soyoil and soymeal is not encouraging which is putting pressure on prices. Arrivals are low as farmers are busy due to wedding season and also they expect better prices for their produce. Arrivals of soyabean in Madhya Pradesh state dropped by 5000 bags of 100kg each to 40000 bags of 100kg each. China's soybean imports are expected to reach record highs in the coming year, according to forecasts released by the China National Grain and Oils Information Center.
Menthaoil May contract dropped Rs 2.4 and settled at Rs 906.9 on late profit booking though downside was limited on the back of rising demand from the physical markets. Strong demand from the pharmaceutical industries and constrained supply in the domestic market further supported the uptrend. It is to be learnt that prices have been falling continuously for the commodity due to low demand and prospects of better production this year. But some short covering provided support to the falling prices. Expected higher new crop arrivals this month could prevent rates from shooting up a lot. Expected higher new crop arrivals this month also weighed on prices.
Nickel yesterday traded down -0.16% at 815 on concern about lacklustre demand that was compounded by evidence the European and US economies are still struggling. The US economic results announced yesterday were disappointing. The April housing starts fell 16.5% to 853,000, below market expectations, but building permits beat market estimate, up 14.3%. The labor market was disappointing. The latest initial jobless benefit claims rose to 360,000, above market expectations and higher than the previous data. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index decreased to -5.2 in May. Besides, the April consumer prices rose 1.1% on a yearly basis, well below market estimate and the previous data.
Zinc settled flat amid ongoing concerns over global economic growth prospects, which in turn have triggered worries over demand. US major economic data released later in the day was mostly below expectations, with the number of preliminary jobless claims increasing to 360,000. But a US Federal Reserve official reported the Fed will contract stimulus policy starting this summer, weighing down the US dollar index and inducing investors to enter the market. The Ministry of Commerce Thursday announced the foreign direct investment was USD 8.44 billion in April, up 0.4% YoY, well below market estimate and the previous data.
Copper yesterday traded up 0.78% at 400.5 drawing strength from a weaker dollar and hopes that demand for the metal would rebound in the coming months. After downbeat economic data was released, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US GDP growth for the second quarter to 2.0%. These discouraging figures rekindled expectations for the US Fed to delay exit of easing policy. US economic indicators announced last night disappointed markets. The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.4% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis in April. The Philly Fed manufacturing index swung unexpectedly into negative territory (-5.2) in May. Housing starts in April fell 16.5% to 853,000 units, below expectations.
Crudeoil yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 5209 recovered from the day's low after a fresh wave of disappointing economic indicators in the U.S. fanned sentiments that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary stimulus programs in play for longer than once anticipated. The U.S. economy has seen some signs of recovery, but dour economic data on Thursday pointed to slower economic growth. The Labor Department reported that new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to a seven-month high. Other reports showed factory activity slipped in the mid-Atlantic region while groundbreaking declined at home construction sites.
Silver yesterday traded down -0.12% at 43262 due to stronger U.S. dollar though prices recovered losses tracking firmness in base metals and crude oil prices. Fed officials in the U.S. earlier dismissed talk of keeping policy ultra-loose for an extended period of time. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index fell to -5.2 in May from 1.3 in April. Year-on-year inflation rates in the U.S. came to 1.1%, just shy of market expectations for a 1.3% reading and well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Gold yesterday traded down -0.68% at 26131 as renewed liquidation in gold-exchange traded funds and its recent drop below the $1,400-per-ounce level spooked bullion investors, prompting them to favor other assets. The fall below $1,400 in the previous session triggered heavy selling and that the yellow metal might retest two-year lows of $1,321.35 touched on April 16, when it recorded the worst daily loss for 30 years. Rallying Wall Street stock indexes have hurt bullion's appeal as an alternative investment this year, leading to hefty outflows from gold-backed exchange traded funds. Gold investment nearly halved in the first quarter as a brighter view of the U.S.
Gold yesterday settled down by -1.49% at 26310 softened to four-week lows after a string of disappointing economic indicators in the U. S. and Europe sparked safe-haven demand for the liquid greenback and suppressed appetite for risk-on asset classes such as precious metals. Gold slid below $1,400 an ounce losing two% and hitting its lowest in nearly a month as a record rally in U. S. equities and economic optimism undermined bullion's safe-haven appeal.
Mustardseed yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.17% up at 3513 recovering from lows on short covering after prices dropped as arrivals in physical markets are gradually improving. The Industry estimated 71.5 lakh tons of Mustard seed production this year. This will put pressure on the prices in near future. The industry has estimated 71.5 lakh tons of mustard seed production this year by India. The DOC demand has marginally improved in the market. India is the fourth largest producer of mustard seed with a market share of around 12%.