Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.29% at 20520 on short covering after prices dropped as arrivals have improved in the physical market. About 185.9 lakh bales of cotton have arrived in the domestic market. Maharashtra is leading the arrivals figures at 51 lakh bales followed by Gujarat at 42 lakh bales. Moreover, India has exported around 2.5 million bales so far in the 201617 season that started on Oct. 1. In 201516 India exported 6.9 million bales, but this year exports could fall 28 % to 5 million bales. India's cotton arrivals falls 5% to 12.83 million bales until Jan 19 on late commencement of supplies though output for the 2016-17 is expected to higher. Last year arrivals till date stood at 13.51 million bales, according to CCI (Cotton Corporation of India) data.
Cardamom on MCX settled down by -1.86% at 1447.4 tracking weakness in spot demand despite of tight stocks, declining supplies and adverse weather conditions. Harvesting of cardamom is almost over and arrivals may come down further in the coming days. Cardamom prices are likely to trade range bound to firm for the coming couple of weeks. According traders estimates, cardamom production for the current year is around 18,000 ton down from 28,000 tons a year ago showing a fall of 35.7% on year. In Delhi spot market prices of cardamom (Robin quality) fell by Rs 25 at Rs 1,325-1,350 per kg due to lack of demand from Uttar Pradesh- largest buyer-because of assembly elections. India exported 1,625 ton cardamom during Apr-Sept versus 2,026 ton a year ago.
Maize on NCDEX settled up by 0.42% at 1428 tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices. Mexico's attempts to diversify its supplies of corn could threaten a crucial market for U. S. farmers who are increasingly dependent on exports to unload record stockpiles that are depressing prices. Mexico buys nearly all its corn imports from the United States - shipments that totaled 13.603 million tonnes in the year ending Aug. 31, 2016. The sales account for about 28 percent of total U. S. corn exports, according to the U. S. Department of Agriculture. Mexico tends to import grain from South America or countries other than the United States only when it is cheaper or supplies are tight. USDA lowered U. S.
Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.58% at 16860 as arrivals would pick up while demand is unlikely to pick up. Commencement of arrivals new crop and liquidation of old stocks would keep prices of Jeera lower for the coming couple of weeks. However, on reports of lower production and good export demand may limit the losses, report added. Stockists and masala manufacturers are waiting for prices to fall further. Sowing of Jeera in Gujarat is pegged at 278,000 hectare until Feb 6 as against 295,000 hectare a year ago. However, sowing is Rajasthan is reported to be lower by 15-20% according to trade sources. India imported around 2,550 ton jeera during Apr-Oct as against negligible in the previous year.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.47% at 6802 amid reports of higher output amid poor export buying. In coming days, arrivals are expected to increase which could put pressure over prices. Prices may decline due to pressure of arrivals but improved domestic and export demand for the new turmeric may support prices. New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha. Production in the ongoing season is expected to increase mainly on higher sowing area and favourable weather conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh etc. According to trade sources turmeric output is expected to be around 7.5-8 million bags. India's Apr-Sept turmeric export stood at 59,000 ton up 47% on year, according to Spices Board data.
Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.16% at 3782 tracking weakness in spot demand and on expectation of higher supply. India's agriculture department in second advance estimated pegged mustard seed crop at 7.912 million tons as compared to 6.797 million tons a year ago. Sources projected new mustard crop between 6.5-7 million tons. With the expectation of good crop in 201617, the new season supplies will be at higher size in the country. In addition to that the carryover stocks from last year might be higher as country imported record mustard oil and exported multiyear low mustard meal. However, the prices will get some support from the increase in minimum support price (MSP) of Rapeseed & Mustard to Rs. 3,700 per quintal for 201617 from Rs. 3,350 per quintal last year.
Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.63% at 555.5 amid easing supply worries from Malaysia, the world's second biggest oil producer. Price will remain down after estimates from millers in southern Peninsular Malaysia showed yields rose by 14% between Feb 1-15. In addition this palm oil (CPO+RBD) stock in various ports of India has risen by 30% as on Feb 06 against last week. In addition this, on demand side, market participants are taking no interest in buying for the oil on weak sentiment, whereas big players in the industry also opted to stay away from market.
Ref. Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.8% at 659.4 on weak physical demand, lowering base import price and higher production estimates of soyoil in the country. The production of edible oil in 201617 will be 72.8 lt, up 25.5% compared to last year. Last year, edible oil production was at 58 lt. The tariff value of crude soyoil was cut by $32 per tonnes to $847 for the second fortnight of February. According to data released by the SEA, soy oil imports fell nearly 62% on year to 1.67 lt mt in January. Agriculture Ministry in its second advance estimate for 2016-17 oilseed production pegged soybean output at 14.1 million tons compared to market's expectation of 11.4-11.5 million tons.
Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -0.71% at 2935 on oversupply woes after the government reported higher output. However downside seen limited amid higher soymeal demand hope as Indian meal prices are competitive in the export market. Agriculture department in second advance estimates pegged 2016-17 soybean crop at 14.125 million tons as compared to 8.570 million tons reported in the previous year. In addition to this, lower demand from poultry farm is also expected to keep pressure on the prices as broiler chicken prices in retail market is mostly ruling flat as the demand from consumers is limited. As of now the poultry farmers are making profit of around 5% due to which they are reluctant to procure soymeal at higher level.
Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.4% at 1021.4 amid sluggish demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices. Total production of mentha oil during the current season is 32,000-34,000 tonnes against preliminary estimates of around 40,000 tonnes. Unfavourable weather conditions during harvesting period led to the drop in production. On the demand side, the seasonal demand emerges during winter season, especially from the pharma sector. At Sambhal market sources reported arrivals at 70 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 20 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day.
Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.84% at 126.7 tracking LME prices gaining by 1.10 percent as supply issues dominated the market. Chinese inventories of aluminium look set to continue to increase over the coming weeks as physical fundamentals in China remain slack. A major aluminium producer has made an indicative offer of a premium of $125 per tonne to Japanese buyers for April-June primary metal shipments, up 32 percent from the last quarter. The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded deficit during the entire 12-month period in 2016. As per the report, the market reported a deficit of 985,000 tons when matched with the deficit of 659,000 reported for the entire year 2015.
Nickel on MCX settled up 0.62% at 744.3 as the market tracked the latest plans by the Philippines to close mines on environmental grounds. Nickel extended recent gains, finishing up 0.9 percent at $11,150, the highest since Dec. 19. The Philippines' environment minister said on Monday that she stands by her decision to shut more than half the country's operating mines ahead of a meeting to review the move. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he would review a minister's order to close more than half the country's mines for environmental violations, following an outcry from affected producers.
Zinc on MCX settled up 2.66% at 193.05 boosted by a drop in inventories. Zinc has gained 10 percent this year on concerns that the closure and suspensions of big mines will create shortages. LME zinc climbed 2.6 percent to end open outcry trading at $2,884 after LME data showed on-warrant inventories, those not earmarked for shipment from warehouses and therefore available to investors -- slid 11 percent to 258,050 tonnes, the lowest since January 2009. Zinc hit a record shortage in 2016. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, zinc registered a deficit of 286,000 metric tons last year. Global usage of refined zinc metal rose 3.6% while supply remained pretty much flat thanks to a number of mine shutdowns.
Copper on MCX settled up 1.21% at 405.05 as LME prices bounced back above $6,000 a tonne as a dispute affecting production at the world's second-biggest copper mine worsened. U. S. mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Inc said on Monday that it could take the Indonesian government to arbitration and seek damages over a contractual dispute that has halted operations at its huge Grasberg mine. Further tightening supplies is a strike at Chile's Escondida copper mine, the world's biggest, which has extended into a second week. Both Grasberg and Escondida declared force majeure last week. Representatives of Escondida, controlled by BHP Billiton, plan to attend talks with striking workers on Monday as long as the union does not interfere with a shift change for non-union employees.
Naturalgas on MCX settled down -3.03% at 185.40 as markets continue to suffer at the hands of warmer temperatures in the United States, and of course a massive amount of oversupply when it comes to the natural gas markets. Natural gas prices fell sharply on Monday, hitting the lowest level since November as forecasts continued to call for mostly warmer-than-normal weather in key regions across the U. S. for the rest of the winter. While trading activity was likely to stay light as markets in the U. S. remain closed for President’s Day on Monday. Natural gas speculators have hoped for rising demand for the energy commodity, but rising productivity has resulted in plummeting prices.
Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.53% at 3623 rose on Monday despite very thin trading as holiday trade in the U. S. reduce volume and reduced volatility settled at $53.69, as investor optimism over the effectiveness of producer cuts encouraged record bets on a sustained rally, although growing U. S. output and stubbornly high stockpiles kept price gains in check. Support seen as data showing hedge funds are betting big across oil markets following OPEC production cuts agreed last year. Prices got a slight lift from a weaker dollar as well. A strong greenback typically makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. The OPEC and other producers, including Russia, agreed last year to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of 2017.
Silver on MCX settled down -0.09% at 42900 tracking weakness from Comex Silver which settled at 17.99 settled nearly unchanged on Monday as holiday trade in the U. S. reduce volume and reduced volatility. The dollar has lost some support in recent weeks as a lack of concrete detail dampened post-election euphoria over Trump's commitment to cutting taxes, easing regulation and boosting spending. Meanwhile the euro edged higher against the dollar after a slide in U. S. bond yields, shrugging off worries over upcoming French elections. The heads of five regional U. S. Federal Reserve banks are scheduled to speak this week. In addition, Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell appears on Wednesday, when minutes of the last policy meeting are also due.
Gold on MCX settled down -0.19% at 29303 traded in the range while recovered from the day's low as the dollar softened, although trading was thin due to the U. S. holiday and as markets awaited details on President Donald Trump's tax policy. Also market activity is likely to be largely subdued until guidance on the pace of interest rate hikes from a raft of Federal Reserve speakers this week. Liquidity was thin due to the Presidents Day holiday in the United States. From a wider perspective, gold is seen consolidating near 3-month tops and looks for the next push higher, as uncertainty over the US economic policies continue to persist in wake of Trump’s administration.
Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.05% at 20780 on increasing arrivals in local mandis and on profit booking. Daily arrivals in the last week held around 180,000 bales slightly higher than the previous week's average arrivals. In addition to that, reports of cancellation of export order also kept cotton prices down. Indian cotton exporters have cancelled orders for around 25,000 bales and postponed shipments of about 200,000 bales by up to a month after a supply shortage pushed up local prices. India's cotton arrivals declined 5.61% in until Feb 10 as farmers are withholding stocks in anticipation of higher prices later though output is projected higher, said a senior official of Cotton Corporation of India (CCI).
Cardamom on MCX settled up by 1.42% at 1506.6 on good buying support amid a squeeze in supplies. Harvesting is nearly complete and hence arrivals are unlikely to pick up. Exporters and north Indian dealers have slowed down because of the higher prices. Exports of small cardamom during April-September 2016 have dropped by 20 per cent in volume and 22 per cent in value realisation from that of the same period the last fiscal. Shipments during the first six months of the current financial year stood at 1,625 tonnes valued at Rs. 139.25 crore against 2,026 tonnes valued at Rs. 179.32 crore in the corresponding period in 2015-16, according to Spices Board sources.
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