USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.6.09
As expecting the USD/JPY is launching after finally eclipsing February highs and consequently the highly psychological 100 level. Putting the 100 area behind the USD/JPY is a huge step psychologically, and could proceed to yield a strong leg up in the near-term.
All the USD/JPY needs to do is make a follow-through and push past our next two downtrend lines. If this happens, there are no foreseeable downtrend lines remaining, and the currency pair can march on to huge gains.
The bears are finally giving into the bulls after last week's data from Japan showed the Japanese economy is weakening considerably as compared to America's economy.
With both central banks maintaining a benchmark rate around zero while using quantitative easing, the pricing of the USD/JPY relies on comparative economic performance.
The Japanese government is expected to fire back on Friday with what should be a new $100 billion stimulus plan. It will be interesting to see how the USD/JPY reacts, and could be what holds back a breakout in the currency pair.
Investors will also be keeping a close watch on corporate earnings from America this week and the performance of U. S. equities considering the positive correlation between the USD/JPY and the S&P futures.
Since the S&P futures could be in for some near-term profit taking, we could see the USD/JPY return towards 100 today as investors test the solidity of the psychological move. Fundamentally, we find resistances of 101.44, 101.98, 102.50, 103.10, and 103.76.
To the downside, we see supports of 100.71, 100.28, 99.79, 99.06, and 98.16. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 100.89.
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