USD Technical Forex Analysis for Daily Traders
The USD started a bit better overnight but began to fall off as traders trimmed long positions ahead of today's economic news. This morning's CPI and Housing data was mixed for traders as lower CPI was offset by weaker housing data; the majors began a steady climb into the FOMC rate announcement which of course was the big news of the day. In a surprise move, the FOMC voted unanimously to cut rates a larger than expected 75 BP putting the FF rate at .25% and announcing to the world that the USD is now the cheapest currency on the planet.
Traders responded by dumping Dollars against everybody in what is sure to become common practice in the year ahead. In the move to quantitative easing, similar to what the BOJ announced in the 1990's, the FED has made the Greenback to worlds lowest yielding currency period. Although equities are rallying and like the positive approach to the cost of money, the resulting inflation will certainly drive Gold, Oil and Commodities pricing higher during the next year. Traders note that the resulting loss of prestige for holding USD will likely cause a rise in EURO and GBP back to levels seen prior to the financial crisis began. GBP rallied sharply on the news but so far high prints are still below previous resistance as cross-spreaders remain fixed on record high prices for EURO/GBP; highs at 1.5511 likely to fall the next few days. EURO also rallied after retreating from the 100 day MA at 1.3770 area; high prints at 1.3993 area just shy of technical resistance but the resulting rally will likely see higher prices.
USD/JPY remained inside range and the only pair that didn't respond more aggressively; low prints in the rate at 89.09 but traders note bids on dips suggesting that the rate may be ready for a technical bounce although traders remain optimistic that further losses may be in the works without BOJ intervention. USD/CHF broke through key support at the 1.1420/30 level and ran for the boarder; low prints at 1.1262 with more on the way most likely. USD/CAD also slipping aggressively as USD melts down elsewhere dropping to a low print at 1.2012 with more on the way. Heading into press time the majors are extending their highs again and most likely will see follow-on selling of USD overnight. In my view, the Greenback has topped for sure at this point and traders need to be positioned for further losses in the coming months. Any rallies in the USD most likely will be selling opportunities and quite possibly history will show that today was the start of the greatest slide in USD value in history. Look for follow-on selling overnight.
Today's US Dollar Trading
- CPI and Housing data mixed, largely ignored
- FOMC cuts by 75 BP, USD drops like a stone
- Equities rally but more USD losses to come
Overnight Preview
- Look for equities and Oil to rally in Asia
- Majors likely to advance more overnight
Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
- All Day ALL OPEC Meeting
- 8:30am USD Current Account
- 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories
Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com