S&P Daily Commentary for 4.9.09
The S&P futures are popping Thursday pre-market after Wells Fargo announced earnings that blew away analyst estimates. Additionally, the U. S. just released better than expected Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims data, only adding fuel to the fire.
The futures have leapt through our 2nd tier downtrend line and are approaching our 3rd tier as we speak. If the S&P futures can carry their momentum through our 3rd tier downtrend line we should see a retest of April highs and a possible breakout.
The better than expected earnings from Wells Fargo will be met with cheers on the exchange today since investors have been biting their nails over earnings from financials.
Although an improving Trade Balance is certainly a positive change of pace for the U. S., the underlying reasons are a bit concerning. While there was a slight uptick in exports, plummeting imports were the driving force behind a rising balance.
Therefore, consumer sentiment is certainly taking a hit from higher unemployment. Speaking of unemployment, while Unemployment Claims were better than expected, the number is nothing to get excited about.
Unemployment Claims are still at uncomfortably high levels, creating a sharper pinch on consumption. Brushing the warnings aside, the S&P futures are at a key juncture.
If they can bust through our 3rd tier downtrend line we could experience large near-term gains with a new leg up towards the psychological 900 level.
Meanwhile, gold and the 30 Year futures are dropping like a rock, indicating a breakout in U. S. equities. Furthermore, crude futures are on the cusp of their own turning point.
Therefore, U. S. equities could bring a cheerful Eastern Sunday. Fundamentally, we find supports of 815, 809.25, 804.75, 799.75, and 794. To the topside, we see resistances of 821.5, 829.5, 834.75, 840.25, and 845.25. The S&P futures are currently trading at 816.50.
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