RITES, SAIL, NALCO, MRPL and GAIL shares were in demand during Wednesday's trading session. IREDA, BHEL, BEL and HUDCO were among major losers. PSU Stocks are once again witnessing higher volatility and traders can expect good moves in today's session as well. US markets were trading near all-time highs and the sentiment has turned positive for US investors. India’s state-linked companies are moving in sharply divergent directions as the July-2025 earnings cycle closes. Railways stock RITES is piling up export orders yet trades at a frothy valuation; steel major SAIL has clawed back profitability but faces sceptical analysts; aluminium champion NALCO posts record numbers while brokers cool their near-term targets; refiner MRPL struggles under debt and a sky-high P / E; pipeline operator GAIL courts a tariff catalyst that could unlock double-digit upside; and green-finance specialist IREDA rides India’s renewable push but already hovers near consensus price goals.

RITES — Contract Bonanza Meets Valuation Ceiling

International momentum: A fresh USD 3.6 million mandate from an African rail operator on 2 July sent the share up more than 6 % to Rs. 296. That win sits atop a recent pile: a Rs. 37.81 crore Tumakuru-station revamp, a Rs. 28.5 crore Gujarat urban-dev contract and a USD 2.9 million job in Guyana.
Retail faith rising: Individual shareholding edged from 15.63 % to 15.80 % in the March quarter.
Financial cadence: Revenue has advanced four quarters running—from Rs. 510.42 crore to Rs. 642.65 crore—while net profit jumped from Rs. 72.98 crore to Rs. 132.71 crore.
Price action: The stock is up 20.5 % in three months but still trails by 20.31 % year-on-year.
Valuation headwinds: Trading at 32.6 × earnings and 5.1 × book, RITES sits roughly 153 % above an intrinsic-value estimate of Rs. 110.43. Consensus fair value is Rs. 276.25, hinting at limited near-term upside unless new order inflow accelerates.
Source: Company release, brokerage dashboard, retail-holding data.

SAIL — Profit Recovery, Analyst Caution

Quarterly scorecard: Q4 FY25 PAT rose 11.1 % YoY to Rs. 1,251 crore on revenue of Rs. 29,316 crore. FY24 profit printed at Rs. 3,067 crore. Total assets gained 7.83 % to Rs. 1.41 trillion.
Market verdict: The stock closed 1 July at Rs. 133.34, but the 12-month return is a negative 11.45 %.
Valuation metrics: P / E sits at 22.99 ×, P / B at 1.02 ×, ROE at 6.14 %.
Street stance: Average target Rs. 119.80 signals ~ 10 % downside; 42 % of 25 analysts say ‘Sell’, 38 % ‘Hold’.
Source: SAIL results call, sell-side survey.

NALCO — Record Earnings, Tempered Near-Term Outlook

Historic peak: FY25 net profit surged to Rs. 5,267.94 crore; Q4 alone doubled YoY to Rs. 2,067.23 crore on robust aluminium pricing and record bauxite output.
Share reaction: Post-earnings bounce exceeded 5 %.
Broker reset: One leading house cut its target to Rs. 190 (still ‘Hold’) despite the blow-out quarter, expecting softer near-term metal margins.
Long view: Other strategists peg 2025 fair value between Rs. 250 – 300 on expansion capex, tech upgrades and rising auto/infra demand.
Source: Exchange filing, domestic brokerage note.

MRPL — Price Pop Masks Debt Drag

Market blip: Shares climbed to Rs. 144.20 by 2 July, beating the Sensex over one week. Yet YTD performance remains negative and PAT has fallen 55.7 % over six months.
Balance-sheet strain: Leverage is elevated; the P / E reads an eye-watering 460.6 ×, reflecting either depressed earnings or speculative froth.
Analyst lens: Two-broker average target of Rs. 120.50 implies ~ 16 % downside. Street models see FY27 revenue contracting 7.97 % with EPS off 38.84 %.
Source: MRPL quarterly data, consensus screen.

GAIL — Pipeline Tariff Wild-Card

Regulatory trigger: GAIL has petitioned the PNGRB for a 33 % unified-tariff hike. Even a 10- – 20 % uplift would lift FY27 transmission EBITDA by 13 – 26 %, Jefferies calculates.
Broker conviction: Jefferies reiterated ‘Buy’ at Rs. 210 on 26 June; a favourable ruling could send fair value to Rs. 235 – 250.
Financial snapshot: March-quarter revenue printed Rs. 36,442 crore; PAT Rs. 2,506 crore. ROE stands at 14.75 %.
Valuation: Shares at Rs. 189.62 trade on 10.1 × trailing earnings, well under the sector mean.
Consensus heat map: 77 % of 30 analysts rate ‘Buy’; mean target Rs. 217.23.
Source: PNGRB docket, Jefferies note, Bloomberg consensus.

IREDA — Renewables Financier on a Roll

Lending surge: Q1 FY26 sanctions jumped 29 % YoY to Rs. 11,740 crore; disbursements up 31 % to Rs. 6,981 crore; outstanding pipeline Rs. 79,960 crore.
FY25 print: Revenue Rs. 6,742 crore, PAT Rs. 1,699 crore, stellar ROE of 28.97 %.
Market level: Stock closed 1 July at Rs. 170.39; consensus target Rs. 173.
Split stance: Analysts: 50 % ‘Buy’, 50 % ‘Hold’. Long-horizon modelling (unnamed brokerage) sets 2030 bull-case at Rs. 741.81 on India’s 450 GW renewables mission.
Source: IREDA investor deck, renewable-energy policy brief.

Comparative Dashboard

*NALCO and IREDA P / E not meaningful due to cyclicality or financial-company metrics.

Strategic Takeaways

• Valuation discipline matters: RITES and MRPL trade at exuberant multiples relative to fundamentals; fresh entry demands patience for pull-backs.
• Catalyst watch: GAIL’s tariff order is the lone binary event with immediate upside potential, making it the consensus favourite among brokers.
• Sector rotation signals: Metals (SAIL, NALCO) hinge on global commodity trends; any China demand surprise could flip sentiment quickly.
• Policy leverage: IREDA’s fortunes are chained to New Delhi’s 450 GW renewable roadmap—regulatory slippage would blunt the long-term case.
• Balance-sheet scrutiny: MRPL’s high debt and weak EPS trajectory underscore why top-line moves alone can mislead retail momentum traders.

Bottomline for Traders and Short Term Investors

The July 2025 scoreboard captures an economy in transition: rail-export consultancy flourishing on global orders; legacy steel treading water amid valuation angst; aluminium kingpins balancing record cash flow against cyclical caution; a refin­er wrestling debt despite a price lift; a gas-pipeline incumbent awaiting a regulator’s pen; and a renewable lender sprinting ahead of national green targets.