Projections for cut in key rates by RBI; no change likely in repo rate, reverse repo rate, CRR

Projections for cut in key rates by RBI; no change likely in repo rate, reverse repo rate, CRRAccording to anticipations of the investment banking firm Barclays Capital, it is likely that the impending annual credit policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may result in the slashing of the key rates by up to 50 basis points. An almost similar opinion has been expressed by the HDFC Bank, which, however, said that it projects a 25-basis-points cut in RBI's policy rates.

Furthermore, Barclays expects that at April 21 scheduled credit policy meeting, the RBI may decide against any change in repo rate, reverse repo rate and the cash reserve ratio (CRR).

In its Saturday report, Barclays said: "At most, we expect cuts amounting to only 50 basis points in the repo and reverse repo rate in Q2, 2009, and then a pause for the remainder of the calendar year."

As per the view of the stakeholders in the banking sector, the RBI may limit the quantum of excess funds that banks can park daily at its reverse repo window, to enhance their lend activity for the productive sectors of the economy.

In the opinion of S Srinivasa Raghavan, the head of the Treasury at IDBI Gilts, the prospective non-rate action by the RBI could likely include the imposition of an upper limit on the amount that banks can collectively park at the reverse repo window in one day.

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