ICICI Securities has reiterated its bullish stance on NTPC, maintaining a BUY rating with a target price of Rs439. India's largest power utility is embarking on an aggressive expansion, redefining its growth trajectory by ramping up capacity plans to 149GW by FY32—a notable leap from the earlier 130GW target. Bolstered by a Rs7 trillion capex commitment, NTPC is navigating the nation's energy transition through a substantial push in renewables, expansion in traditional thermal, new ventures in green hydrogen and storage, and a meaningful foray into nuclear energy. Institutional investors should monitor execution pace, profitability projections, and the evolving energy landscape for optimal returns.

NTPC's Expansion Sets the Tone for India's Power Future

ICICI Securities urges investors to BUY NTPC, citing a revised capacity roadmap and diversified growth anchored in both conventional and new-age energy sources. The power major is redefining its ambitions with a Rs7 trillion capex outlay reaching FY32. Investors should note the sharp pickup in renewable additions and strategic moves into green hydrogen and nuclear. Thermal capacity remains indispensable for maintaining base and peak demand, given India's ongoing power surge. A robust financial profile—solid revenue growth, improving margins, and resilient profitability—further underpins NTPC's investment case. The recommendation comes amid delivery risk but is buoyed by NTPC’s consistent performance and sectoral tailwinds.

NTPC Shifts the Goalpost: Capacity Ambitions Heightened

NTPC’s FY32 capacity target has been upgraded to 149GW from 130GW, a pivotal change highlighting leadership ambition. The company currently boasts nearly 83GW in installed capacity as of June 2025, reinforcing its established dominance. The move comes with a Rs7 trillion capex pledge, encompassing coal-based, renewable, pumped hydro storage (PSP), and nuclear initiatives. Execution remains central, especially as the company strives to commission significant additions by FY26 and further accelerate build-out in subsequent years.

Thermal Power Gets a Lifeline

NTPC’s core remains coal-centric, but strategic brownfield expansions are leveraging existing infrastructure for medium-term gains. The company is in the process of adding approximately 26–27GW of new coal capacity, reflecting a pragmatic approach to India’s surging base and peak electricity requirements. Notably, NTPC is prioritizing brownfield expansions—maximizing land and infrastructural efficiencies. Beyond the targeted additions, management is open to surpassing thermal capacity if market dynamics demand it.

Accelerating the Green Transition

With a 60GW renewable energy (RE) target by FY32, NTPC is reshaping its identity as a central pillar in India's journey to sustainable power. NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL), its listed green subsidiary, drives this transformation and already has more than 23GW contracted and awarded. RE additions are poised to ramp up, with 6GW planned for FY26 alone and further increases in the subsequent years. The group also ventures into green hydrogen, its derivatives (such as green ammonia), and advanced storage solutions—expanding the scope well beyond solar and wind.

Foray into Nuclear and Energy Storage: A Diversified Canvas

NTPC has rolled out a bold nuclear roadmap, targeting 30GW by FY47, with the initial foundation for JV projects imminent. Pumped hydro storage and battery systems are also taking center stage, positioning NTPC at the vanguard of grid stability and energy transition. The company plans to commission 21GW in PSP—11GW under NTPC and 10GW under associates. This diversification addresses long-term intermittency and supports decarbonization efforts.

Execution Pace—the Key Monitorable

Despite ambitious targets, execution speed remains a critical risk for investors. FY25 saw additions fall short at ~4GW, while FY26 to date records 3GW commissioned out of an 11.8GW guidance for the full year. The analyst meet underscored the need for steady realization of targets, emphasizing that timely delivery will differentiate NTPC from other power majors.

Financial Performance and Valuation Levels

NTPC’s current valuation paints a compelling portrait for investors:
The company reported robust financials for the year ending March 2025:

Net revenue: Rs1,901,159 million (FY25A), on the path toward Rs2,177,165 million by FY27E.

EBITDA margin: improving from 28.4% (FY24A) to 32.6% (FY27E).

Net profit: steady at Rs234,288 million for FY25A, with estimates of Rs234,843 million by FY27E.

Key valuation ratios:

P/E ratio projected to compress from 16.3x (FY25A) to 13.9x (FY27E).

EV/EBITDA: 9.7x (FY25A), falling to 8.3x (FY27E).

Dividend yield strengthening: 2.4% (FY25A) to 3.1% (FY27E).

Return on equity (RoE): solid at 11.6% (FY25A), sustaining above 11% through the forecast period.

Stock Levels and Investor Target

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs336
Target Price (TP): Rs439
Investment Horizon: 12 months
The 52-week price range: Rs448 high and Rs293 low. NTPC’s market capitalization stands at Rs3,259 billion (approx. $37.3 billion USD), with a free float of 49% and institutional holdings steady at around 45%. ICICI Securities employs a SoTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) methodology, assigning 15x FY27E earnings for the thermal business and applying a 20% discount to NGEL’s valuation.

ESG Performance: Environment, Social, Governance Scorecard

NTPC’s ESG score shifted from 66.1 (2023) to 63.7 (2024), reflecting a slight reduction driven by environmental metrics.

Environment: 45.8, down 3.1 points.

Social: 69.4, down 2.8 points.

Governance: 76.2, up 3.2 points.

These scores indicate strong governance but highlight room for improvement on environmental disclosure and social factors as NTPC pivots towards a greener portfolio.

Risks and Caveats to Watch

Key risks include delays in both thermal and renewable project execution, and potential increases in cost outlays.
Investors should also monitor regulatory changes, especially regarding Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) mandates, as these can materially affect project costs and timelines.

Bottomline: Why NTPC Remains a Power Play for Investors

NTPC delivers a rare combination: scale, financial discipline, and a strategic pivot from coal to renewables and nuclear. ICICI Securities’ BUY recommendation, alongside a target of Rs439, rests on NTPC’s proven execution, robust earnings outlook, and vibrant expansion roadmap. As India’s power demand surges, NTPC stands ready to deliver—provided execution risks are well managed and the green transition is deftly navigated. For investors, NTPC offers a compelling play on both India’s energy stability and its low-carbon future.