No escalation of conflict in southern Philippines, says think tank

Manila - Fighting between government troops and Muslim rebels in the southern Philippines is not likely to escalate into a full-scale war, an international security think tank said Friday.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said several factors, including lack of resources, "militate against the widening of the conflict" between security forces and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels in the strife-torn southern region of Mindanao.

"The likelihood of full-scale war engulfing Mindanao seems low," the ICG said. "Neither side has the resources to engage in sustained combat.

Fighting between the MILF and government security forces escalated in August after the Supreme Court stopped the signing of a territory deal that would have expanded the existing Muslim autonomous region in Mindanao.

The ICG noted that while some rebel commanders have decided to turn away from the peace talks after the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain was scrapped, the MILF leadership said that it will not order its forces into battle.

The ICG, however, warned that some foreign Islamic militants operating in Mindanao could take "retaliatory action" while a few more MILF commanders might join in the battle.

"A major urban bombing could trigger a much wider conflict," it added.

The ICG urged foreign governments to put pressure on the Philippines and the MILF to keep the existing ceasefire mechanisms to help prevent the escalation of conflict.

It expressed worry over the increasing support, from both government and civic groups, for the increasing role of paramilitary troops in maintaining peace and order in the area.

"While the need for defence against attacks by MILF units ... is real, Philippine officials should know by now that arming poorly trained civilian forces only make things worse," the ICG said. (dpa)

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