The market is showing an undecided, sideways movement because there has been no confirmation regarding the current session. The market is consistently waiting for a decision, so nothing significant has developed regarding the trade negotiations. Until then, we are unlikely to see much of a rise or any upward movement.

Today, the market opened slightly lower, and afterward, it moved sideways with a very narrow range. It made a low of 25,001 and a high of 25,593, so the market spread was just around 100 points. Throughout the day, this resulted in option premiums mostly decaying.

Domestic and global market analysis

India-US relations and the Quad: Jaishankar’s strategic visit

S. Jaishankar, India’s Foreign Minister, is visiting the USA to discuss various topics. The main focus is on the Quad meeting, along with discussions on trade negotiations with the USA. Both of these issues are key points of the visit. Meetings with the foreign ministers of all the Quad countries are also taking place.

The Quad summit is taking place, which is of key importance for discussions on the Indo-Pacific region. The four major countries involved are the USA, India, Australia, and Japan. All the foreign secretaries are meeting in the USA for this summit. Regarding trade negotiations, India’s Foreign Minister has stated that there will be a “give and take” in these discussions.

Elon musk plans “America party” amid clash with trump

Elon Musk is planning to launch a new political party called the “America Party.” Reports suggest there has been a fallout between former US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, after Musk once again criticized Trump’s “Big Beautiful Tax,” which could affect subsidies for Musk’s businesses. In a recent statement, Musk said that if this bill—which is widely expected to pass—does go through, he will form a new party called the America Party. In response, Trump’s team has indicated they plan to launch a crackdown on Musk, and there have even been suggestions about deporting him back to South Africa.

Trump threatens 500% tariff on India over Russian oil imports

In a recent statement, Donald Trump said he would impose a 500% tariff on India because of its support for Russia. This kind of statement from Trump reflects his usual tactic of threatening opponents to pressure them into compliance or to secure better deals. Despite these threats, India has continued its significant purchases of Russian oil, even as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified. At the same time, China’s cooperation with Russia has been increasing day by day. Both countries are making progress in their ties despite constant pressure from Western nations to reduce their engagement with Russia. Trump has accused both India and China of backing Russia.

India’s GST collection shows strong growth in June

India’s GST data for June shows a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, with collections reaching ₹1.85 lakh crore for the month. The consistent rise in GST collections is boosting consumer confidence in the Indian market. This trend reflects sustainable and growing economic policies that support continued economic growth. The rising GST collections are a very positive sign for the Indian economy, as they give the government more room to increase spending further. Overall, these developments create positive sentiment in the market.

FII AND DII data analysis

FII and DII data analysis shows that FIIs have been net buyers for four consecutive months, starting from March. They have continued their buying trend through March, April, May, and June, making these four months consistently net positive for FII investments. However, in today’s market session, there was some negative selling pressure, with FIIs selling nearly ₹1,970 crore.

After massive selling in the calendar year 2024, during which FIIs sold more than ₹3 lakh crore in the Indian market, the Nifty saw significant volatility and dropped nearly 16% from its peak. However, recent data shows that FIIs have been consistently buying, which reflects growing confidence in the Indian market. This trend is expected to make the market more sustainable, supported by positive forecasts for monetary policy, which is creating a favorable environment for the Indian economy.

DIIs are also showing confidence in the Indian equity market. In June, they made net purchases of nearly ₹72,673 crore. Additionally, in today’s market session, they continued their positive trend with net buying of ₹771 crore.

Nifty 50 Technical Analysis Outlook

The market is showing muted movement, with some upside, but there is still no clear or positive sentiment emerging from the ongoing trade negotiations. Although reports are circulating, there has been no official confirmation. Based on our previous analysis, the 25,500 level is expected to act as strong support, and the market has respected this level, closing above it. Today, the Nifty closed at 25,541.

As per the key levels, we see that the 25,300–25,500 zone is likely to act as strong support in the short term. On the upside, resistance is expected around the 25,700 level for the next couple of trading sessions.

Conclusion

Muted buying from FIIs and the lack of any conclusive updates from the USA are key factors preventing the Nifty 50 from moving significantly higher, resulting in a sideways trend. Therefore, we expect the Nifty to continue showing muted movement in the short term. The 25,300 level is likely to act as good support, while resistance is expected around 25,700 in the near term. There are high expectations that the ongoing trade negotiations could soon yield positive outcomes, especially as India’s Foreign Minister is visiting the US for multiple discussions.