It’s not end of Recession yet, says official economic historians
It was too early to say that the U. S. recession that began in 2007 had run its course, official economic historians said on Monday.
It was "premature" to announce if the economy had reached a date on which it turned upward, the Business Cycle Dating Committee said.
The economy may have already reached that date, but committee members declined to declare it.
It was noted by the committee that a recession is commonly said to begin after two consecutive quarters of contraction in the gross domestic product and end when growth turns positive.
But the official historians for the economy see it as a more complicated decision than that.
The New York Times reported on Monday that the official decisions on economic swings are made by the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is part of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
James Stock, a Harvard economist who serves on the committee, said that making the judgment call "is a far more difficult task than I think many commentators understand."
Committee members were concerned that a stall or reversal of recent improvements could force them to declare a second recession has begun if they prematurely declared the first one has ended. (With Inputs from Agencies)