Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures made a nice move to the upside yesterday as U. S. equities headed south in reaction to negative economic data. However, once again, the
30 Year futures failed to make a game-changing move to the upside. The lack of follow through to the upside paints a distorted picture.

On one hand, we could be witnessing insufficient demand in the bond market to compensate for the massive supply of treasuries created to fund the government's stimulus measures despite the Fed's use of quantitative easing.

On the other hand, the 30 Year's reluctance to the upside bolsters the argument for a recovery in U. S. equities, and consequently America's economy. Without sufficient evidence it's difficult to commit to one argument or the other, showing the 30 Year futures may be a lagging indicator right now.

That being said, the 30 Year futures are well cemented in their downtrend and will need to make some sizable moves to the upside to alter their path. We placed a new
2nd tier downtrend line on our chart to give you a picture of where some of the trend-setting obstacles stand.

Fundamentally, we hold our resistances of 127.64, 127.89, 128.31, and 128.73 with fresh top-end of 1 130.06. To the downside, our 127.28 resistance turns support while we hold our supports of 127.04 126.69, 126.45, and 126.19. The 30 Year T-Bond futures are presently trading at 128 00.0.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

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