Beirut  - Four years after the February 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri rocked Lebanon, a UN tribunal is finally gearing up to start trying suspects - in a case that may prompt division and instability in the country once again.

On March 1st, the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon - mandated to investigate and prosecute those behind Hariri's murder - will be officially inaugurated in The Hague.

But with Lebanese society still polarized into pro- and anti- Syrian camps, and having just emerged from an 18-month political stalemate, the Hariri tribunal is likely to aggravate wounds that have hardly healed. As a result, political observers fear that the trial will derail upcoming parliamentary elections on June 7.

Four Lebanese Generals - Mustafa Hamdan, commander of the presidential guard, Jamil Sayyed, director of security services, domestic security head Ali Hajj, and the commander of army intelligence Raymond Azar - have been detained in Lebanon since 2005, and are expected to be charged by the Hague court in connection with the murder.

In the election a heated race between the western-backed ruling majority and the opposition led by Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, is likely. The two sides are opposed on whether the tribunal should even exist in the first place.

"The tribunal will add to the divisions already prevailing in Lebanon," political analyst Rami Khoury said.

Some political observers believe it might lead to conflicts in the streets similar to the ones witnessed during May 2008, when 82 people were killed in clashes.

The opposition have long claimed that the tribunal constitutes an unacceptable violation of Lebanese sovereignty - even though it will operate under the Lebanese criminal code - and that it can be politicized to serve as a tool against Syria, their main ally.

In comments made last week to the Lebanese media, the tribunal's commissioner Daniel Bellemare tried to assure all factions involved that the Tribunal will not be a "political exercise" and that "the tribunal is a legal process driven by legal rules."

"There is no politicization of the tribunal," Bellemare said.

For their part, the ruling majority alliance in Lebanon - led by Rafik Hariri's son Saad - have always accused the opposition of trying to obstruct the establishment of the tribunal to protect their Syrian allies.

Previous UN reports, including one written by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, have implicated the Syrian intelligence establishment in the killing. One version of Mehlis'
2005 report even leaked the names of senior Syrian officials, including the brother and brother- in-law of President Bashar al-Assad.

Assad has however long denied any involvement in Hariri's killing and has said Syria will not allow its citizens to appear before the international court.

The anti-Syrian camp have recently raised new fears that Syria and its allies might resort to similar assassinations that targeted its ranks since 2005.

"We have received information via the Lebanese security authorities to take extra precautions at this time, and especially when the Tribunal is launched," Northern Lebanon MP Mustafa Alloush, and a member of the Hariri parliamentary bloc, said.

"We should take the threats seriously, because since 2005 we have been the target of such assassinations attempts every time a decision was taken regarding the Hariri tribunal," Alloush said.

At least eight officials in the anti-Syrian camp were killed in various bomb explosions that targeted their convoys after Hariri was killed.

But some analysts, like Chafik al-Masri believe that the tribunal will not achieve much before the Lebanese parliamentary elections and thus the destabilizing effect will be minimized.

Al-Masri said that "the ruling majority will always utilize and capitalize on [the assassination]," but he noted that the trial's proceedings would end long after the polls on June
7.

Michael Young, another political analyst in Beirut, believes that no one should presume that "the road is nearing its end" with the beginning of the tribunal on March 1st.

"Indeed, we may only be at the end of the beginning," he added. (dpa)