According to a new study, it is being said that keeping a conspiracy hidden is a tough task since one of the conspirators will unravel the secret in due course of time. A research has been undertaken to calculate the time that is taken for a conspiracy to get revealed in front of the masses, deliberately or inadvertently.

An equation has been formulated by Dr. David Grimes, a post-doctoral physicist at Oxford University, to calculate the time required for the revelation of a conspiracy. The formula has been formulated on the basis of three parameters, namely the number of involved schemers, time that has passed since the conspiracy and the basic probability of the failure of a conspiracy.

Subsequently, four famous conspiracies were judged through the formula. The conspiracies on which the formula was applied were Moon landing being faked, climate change beliefs being fraudulent, vaccinations resulting in autism and suppression of cancer treatment by pharmaceutical companies.

The examination of these controversies under the equation reveals that if these conspiracies would have been a reality, then they would have gotten exposed by now.

The Moon landing deception would have got exposed in 3.7 years, while the one associated with climate change would have been revealed in 3.7-26.8 years. Also, the vaccination related to autism conspiracy would have come out in 3.2-34.8 years and the cancer treatment fraud would have been revealed in 3.2 years.

Arriving at the equation started with the Poisson distribution, which was then amalgamated with mathematical deduction on the basis of a couple of assumptions. However, the equation was still incomplete and Dr. Grimes required a good estimate of the intrinsic probability for the failure of a conspiracy. To arrive at this, he assessed the data that was available on three legitimate conspiracies. The formula depicts the "best case scenario" for conspirators.