Next Ice Age Postponed By Humanity: Study

A study by the scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has revealed that human activities are likely to affect the emergence of the next ice age. As the scientists uncover the mystery behind glacial inception, they have established a unique functional association between the summer insolation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. This association provides the primary explanation for the occurrence of previous eight ice ages.

The outcomes of the study further reveal that change in the natural carbon balance of Earth will result in tens of thousands of years delay in the next glacial inception. “The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented. It is mind-boggling that humankind is able to interfere with a mechanism that shaped the world as we know it," said lead author Andrey Ganopolski. He added that burning oil, coal and gas have already given out enough anthropogenic CO2-emissions for a 50,000-year delay in the ice age.

The relation between insolation and CO2 provides evidence for the commencement of a large-scale ice-sheet growth, thereby providing insights about not only the past but the future glacial inception occurrence. The scientists undertook the study with a comprehensive Earth system model simultaneously conjuring up atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets and global carbon cycle. The model allowed them to understand the impact that the CO2-emissions by human activities will have on the Northern Hemisphere’s ice volume.

The assessment revealed that a fair amount of modification of anthropogenic CO2-emissions of 1000-1500 Gigatons in future are most likely to cause a 100,000-year delay in the subsequent ice age, according to co-author Ricarda Winkelmann. The global environment and the growth path of human civilization have been driven primarily by ice ages and now humans have become the reason for their delay, stated Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the co-author and PIK-Director.