Motilal Oswal Financial Services has reiterated a BUY rating on Lodha Developers, calling for an aggressive re-rating as the country’s largest listed real estate player cements its dominance in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and accelerates expansion across Bengaluru, Pune and the National Capital Region (NCR). The brokerage pegs a target price of Rs 1,888 per share versus the current market price of around Rs 1,064, implying a sizeable upside of 77 percent over the next 12 months, backed by robust presales growth, strong cash flow generation and visible deleveraging. With presales expected to clock a 22 percent CAGR between FY25 and FY28 and operating cash flows projected to almost double over the same period, the research house argues that Lodha is transitioning from a cyclical developer to a multi-city, annuity-backed real estate platform with structural earnings visibility.
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Motilal Oswal’s Investment Thesis and Call

Motilal Oswal’s stance and rating
Motilal Oswal maintains a resolute BUY call on Lodha Developers with a 12-month target price of Rs 1,888 per share, signalling an estimated upside potential of 77 percent from current levels. The call rests on a powerful cocktail of accelerating presales, visible operating leverage, rising annuity income and disciplined balance sheet management.
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Core thesis driving the upside
The brokerage underlines that Lodha has delivered a stellar 31 percent CAGR in presales over FY21–FY25 and is now poised for a further 22 percent CAGR in bookings through FY28, supported by a deep launch pipeline and multi-city expansion. This growth is expected to translate into a 12 percent revenue CAGR and a 16 percent PAT CAGR over FY25–FY28, with PAT estimated to reach Rs 43 billion in FY28 and profit margins at 22 percent.
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Earnings Outlook, Valuation and Target Levels

Projected financial trajectory and profitability
Lodha’s total revenue is projected to rise to approximately Rs 193 billion by FY28, implying a 12 percent CAGR over FY25–FY28 as more projects move into mid- to late-construction phases, aiding revenue recognition. EBITDA is forecast at about Rs 55 billion in FY28, with margins stabilising at a robust 28–29 percent, firmly positioning the company in the upper echelon of listed real estate peers.
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Return ratios and balance sheet strength
Return on equity is expected to remain healthy at around 15 percent in FY28, while RoCE should trend near 13 percent as net debt tapers off and capital productivity improves. Net debt-to-equity is guided to remain capped at roughly 0.5x, with a glide path toward net cash by FY27, supported by sharply rising operating cash flows and disciplined capex.
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Valuation framework and target price
Motilal Oswal values Lodha on a sum-of-the-parts basis, arriving at a net asset value of Rs 1,345 billion, which is then accorded a 40 percent premium to reflect the franchise’s scale, execution pedigree and consolidation tailwinds in Indian residential real estate. This exercise yields an NAV-based fair value of Rs 1,888 per share, which forms the basis of the target price and encapsulates the 77 percent expected upside.
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Stock Levels, Trading Strategy and Investor Targets

Current levels and medium-term investment zone
The report anchors its valuation at a current market price of about Rs 1,064 per share, implying that the stock is trading at approximately 28.8x FY26E earnings and 3.4x FY28E book value. At these multiples, Motilal Oswal believes the market is underappreciating the durability of Lodha’s cash flows, the strength of its brand in MMR, and its emerging clout in Bengaluru and Pune.
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Implied price bands and investor targets
For investors, the key reference band is the upside corridor from roughly Rs 1,060–1,100 on the downside to the aspirational target of Rs 1,888 over the next 12 months. Long-term investors with a three- to five-year horizon may see additional compounding potential if the company surpasses its presales guidance, accelerates NCR monetisation and sustains higher-than-modeled annuity income from commercial and industrial assets.
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Suggested investor positioning
The research stance is unambiguous: accumulate the stock on intermediate corrections within the Rs 1,050–1,150 zone with a positional target of Rs 1,888, subject to periodic review of execution and macro indicators. Shorter-term traders may track quarterly presales prints and launch momentum as catalysts for re-rating moves toward intermediate resistance zones well above current levels, though the report primarily addresses institutional and long-only investors.
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Multi-City Growth Engine: MMR, Pune, Bengaluru and NCR

Presales engine and launch pipeline
Lodha has already achieved presales of Rs 90.2 billion in 1HFY26, amounting to 43 percent of its full-year presales guidance of Rs 210 billion, despite a relatively softer launch calendar in the first half. The company is preparing to unleash 11 new project launches and five phase launches in 2HFY26, with an estimated gross development value of around Rs 170 billion, aiming for record quarterly presales of Rs 60 billion in both 3Q and 4Q.
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Market leadership in MMR and scale in Pune
In MMR, Lodha commands the highest market share at about 10 percent, supported by a formidable redevelopment and premium housing franchise that benefits from tight inventory and infrastructure-led demand. In Pune, it has emerged as the second-largest player with roughly 5 percent market share, with sales expected to grow 40 percent YoY to Rs 35 billion in FY26, reflecting both brand acceptance and sustained mid-income demand.
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Bengaluru ramp-up and calibrated NCR entry
Bengaluru has moved from pilot to growth phase, with Lodha’s market share rising from 2 percent and launches in 1HFY26 contributing 25 percent of its launch value and 22 percent of sales. The company has secured about Rs 160 billion of GDV in Bengaluru, is preparing a 70-acre flagship project and targets a 12 percent city market share by FY31, while also laying the groundwork for a capital-light NCR entry via partnerships such as its tie-up with Gurugram-based MRG Group.
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Cash Flows, Collections, Debt and Structural Drivers

Collections surge and operating cash flow ramp-up
Residential collections are projected to climb from Rs 183 billion in FY26E to around Rs 294 billion by FY28E, as marquee projects in Kharadi, Matunga, key JDAs and Bengaluru approach 70 percent completion and Palava Phase 2 nears 40 percent completion. Operating cash flow is estimated to grow from Rs 67 billion in FY25 to roughly Rs 133 billion by FY28, a 26 percent CAGR, comfortably funding annual construction spends of about Rs 70 billion and future land additions without straining the balance sheet.
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Comfortable leverage and path to net cash
Net debt has ticked up to around Rs 54 billion in 2QFY26 due to aggressive business development of roughly Rs 250 billion of GDV in 1HFY26, but the net debt-to-equity ratio remains modest at about 0.25x. As cash generation outpaces incremental capex and land spends, Motilal Oswal expects net debt to decline steadily, with a credible roadmap to a net cash position by FY27, tightening the gap between RoE and RoCE.
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Structural tailwinds in Indian real estate
The report situates Lodha within a broader structural upcycle in Indian real estate, with the sector expected to expand from about USD 300 billion in CY24 to potentially USD 5.8 trillion by 2047, and its GDP contribution rising from 7.3 percent to 15.5 percent. Consolidation driven by RERA, formal financing, and consumer preference for branded developers is accelerating market share shifts toward platforms like Lodha, particularly in tightly supplied, high-value markets such as MMR and Bengaluru.
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Key Risks and Monitoring Variables

Demand, execution and regulatory risks
Motilal Oswal flags a slowdown in residential absorption as a critical risk, particularly if macro conditions, rates or policy shifts adversely impact homebuyer sentiment in core markets. Delays in monetisation of forthcoming projects, especially in new geographies such as NCR and scale-up corridors like Palava, along with slower-than-expected convergence in business development, could also temper the pace of value creation.
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What investors should track closely
Investors are advised to monitor quarterly presales momentum, launch execution in Bengaluru and Pune, progress on NCR pilots, and leasing traction across commercial, warehousing and data center assets at Palava. Debt levels, collection efficiency, and adherence to the guided capex and launch schedules will remain decisive variables in determining whether Lodha can fully realise the ambitious Rs 1,888 target or sustain a premium-to-NAV valuation beyond the current cycle.