Regulated prediction market Kalshi has opened markets predicting whom President-elect Donald Trump might pardon during his first 100 days in office. Among the 12 options listed, two stand out: January 6 rioters and Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road. The markets indicate an 85% chance of pardons for January 6 offenders and a 76% chance for Ulbricht, reflecting Trump’s campaign promises. Kalshi, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is leveraging public speculation to offer insights into Trump’s potential pardon strategy, though historical trends suggest caution in interpreting these predictions.

Kalshi’s Prediction Market: Measuring Speculation

Platform Overview: Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market under the CFTC, offering contracts that pay $1 if specific events occur. With 12 options for potential pardons, the market allows participants to wager on Trump’s likely decisions.

Legal Foundation: After a legal battle with the CFTC, Kalshi secured its regulated status in October, making it a unique platform for political and social predictions.

How It Works: Contract prices reflect perceived probabilities. For example, a Yes share priced at $0.89 implies an 89% likelihood of the event occurring, based on market dynamics.

Top Prediction: January 6 Rioters

High Likelihood of Pardons: Contracts predicting pardons for individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack are priced at $0.89, indicating an 85% chance of pardons within Trump’s first 100 days.

Trump’s Campaign Promises: On the campaign trail, Trump frequently vowed to pardon January 6 offenders, describing them as “patriots” and victims of unfair treatment. However, he has suggested he might exclude the most violent participants, opting for symbolic gestures instead of blanket pardons.

Political Implications: While such pardons could resonate with Trump’s base, they risk backlash, even from allies. Notably, a Trump-appointed judge recently criticized the idea of widespread clemency for January 6 participants, underscoring the polarizing nature of this decision.

Second Favorite: Ross Ulbricht

Market Odds: Shares predicting a pardon for Ross Ulbricht are trading at $0.76, implying a 76% likelihood. Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road marketplace, was convicted of non-violent crimes but received a controversial sentence of two life terms plus 40 years without parole.

Trump’s Campaign Stance: Trump has publicly promised to commute Ulbricht’s sentence, calling it excessively harsh for a first-time offender. Advocates argue that Ulbricht’s remorse and lack of violent offenses merit reconsideration.

Public Sentiment: Ulbricht’s case has garnered significant attention, with critics labeling his punishment as disproportionate. A pardon or commutation could align with Trump’s narrative of justice reform.

Unlikely Pardons: Longshot Predictions

Low Probability Contracts: Other individuals listed on Kalshi’s market have far lower odds of receiving pardons:

Sean “Diddy” Combs: $0.05 per Yes share.
Sam Bankman-Fried: $0.06 per Yes share.
Young Thug: $0.07 per Yes share.
Eric Adams (NYC Mayor): $0.09 per Yes share.
Joe Exotic (“Tiger King”): $0.11 per Yes share.
Public Perception: These contracts reflect public skepticism about the likelihood of such pardons, given either the individuals’ legal situations or their perceived lack of alignment with Trump’s political or personal interests.

Trump’s Historical Trends: A Cautious Start

First-Term Pardons: During his first presidency, Trump issued 143 pardons, with just one occurring during his first year and none in his initial 100 days. His pardon activity surged toward the end of his term, with 116 issued in January 2021.

Backloaded Decisions: Historical trends suggest Trump prefers to issue pardons closer to the end of his term, potentially limiting the likelihood of early actions despite campaign promises.

Kalshi’s Role in Prediction Markets

Regulated Status:** As a CFTC-regulated platform, Kalshi offers a legally compliant avenue for users to speculate on political and social events, setting it apart from unregulated betting sites.

Legal Victory: Kalshi secured its operational status following a legal dispute with the CFTC over election betting, solidifying its position as a trusted platform for speculative insights.

Market Significance: By aggregating public sentiment and speculation, Kalshi provides a snapshot of perceived probabilities, offering unique insights into Trump’s likely actions in office.