In a projection which underscores some much-needed optimism for the struggling BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion (RIM), Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said in a November 20-dated research note to investors that RIM's forthcoming BlackBerry 10 (BB10) operating system has a 20-30 percent chance of being a success.

Pointing out that the carriers are apparently impressed by the BB10 software more than expected, Misek said in the research note that the new RIM platform has a "20 percent to 30 percent probability for success."

Further adding that BB10's projected success probability may help RIM avert a "worst-case scenario," Misek said that the "strongly positive initial feedback" which BB10 has received from the carriers has taken Jefferies by surprise, especially against the backdrop of the fact that the software is already "two years late and RIM's market share has plunged from 20 percent to 5 percent."

With reference to the carrier's positive response to BB10, particularly with Apple's iOS and Google's Android OS currently ruling the roost in the smartphone arena, Misek said that the Jefferies' theory is that the platform is apparently being envisioned by the carriers as their last opportunity "to avoid being locked into a long-term smartphone OS duopoly."

Misek's theory clearly reflects that his BB10 assessment is a definite improvement over Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette's much-reported earlier-this-month opinion that his firm thinks the new RIM software "is likely to be DOA."