Iran's top diplomat weighs influence in Iraq, tests US

Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Cairo  - Although the announced intention behind the visit of Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to Iraq was strengthening economic ties, the timing of the visit this week can also reveal unannounced reasons.

"Now, Iran is trying to open a new dialogue with the US, and the situation in Iraq is one of the related topics to be discussed," said Gamal Abdul-Gawad, a researcher at Al-Ahram Strategic Centre for Political Studies.

"So, Iran is trying to boost its relations with Iraq before such dialogue and to measure its strength in Iraq," Abdel-Gawad told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

Mottaki, who arrived in Iraq on Wednesday, in fact said there was no need for fresh talks with the United States on Iraq because of improved security in the country.

"We think the situation is completely different now," Mottaki told reporters during his visit to Baghdad.

Mottaki noted that the Iraqi government is capable of providing security in the country, and did not foresee Iraq as being part of any possible talks with Iran that have been mooted by US President Barack Obama's administration.

"Based on this, there is no place for such talks under the current circumstances," Mottaki said.

Abdel-Gawad said this is "true to an extent" that the Iraqi government has increased the level of security in the country and decreased the outside influences.

"Yet, it is also too early to say that Iran no longer has influence inside Iraq or has no capability of shaking up the situation inside Iraq," Abdel-Gawad said.

There have been three rounds of US-Iranian direct talks since May 2007 on security issues affecting Iraq. The United States has in the past frequently accused Shiite Iran of fomenting sectarian violence in neighbouring Shiite-dominated Iraq.

Tehran has repeatedly denied the charges, saying it is seeking stability in Iraq.

Abdel-Gawad, who is also a professor of political science in the American University in Cairo, believes that dialogue between the two countries about Iraq is "still important," despite being not as strong an issue as before, when security still seemed elusive in Iraq.

"The success of the political and security process in Iraq has limited the importance of Iran in the war-torn country," Abdel-Gawad added, noting that this has weakened Iran in front of the US.

"Iraq was the card with which Iran pressured the United States. Since there is no such pressure now, Iran has lost some power in front the US," Abdel-Gawad said.

Yet, there are even more indications of Iran's decreased influence in the country.

The preliminary results of Iraq's provincial elections revealed that the Iran-backed groups, who witnessed huge success in the 2005 elections, were not as successful this year.

In the January 31 elections, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's list dominated in Baghdad and in eight of the country's nine Shiite- dominated province, while the Iran-backed Shiite parties did not do well.

"Certainly a country like Iran is interested in Iraq's internal affairs due to the US presence in its next door neighbour, but I believe Iran now understands that the Iraqi public refuses any foreign intervention, and of course the Iranian, in internal policies," said Nabil Mohammed Salim, professor of political science at Baghdad University's strategic studies department.

Salim however believes that Iran wants to retain its influence in Iraq, and that Mottaki's visit reveals this side of the equation.

"It is early to say that Iran's influence in Iraq has diminished, yet the whole situation indicates that it will fade away with time," Salim told dpa.

Mottaki described the expected changes in US foreign policies during Obama's presidency as "good news."

Salim says the top Iranian diplomat is in fact trying to test the US intentions and to send a message at the same time that dialogue can help both countries reach an agreement.

"And of course, in order not to appear weakening, he has to show that his country still holds some strings inside Iraq," Salim said. dpa

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