Energy Market Outlook and Sector Updates: Nirmal Bang
Crude futures edged higher on Monday, lifted by hopes that the economy may be poised for a recovery as equities rose and thereby an improvement in crude demand. Supply concerns also triggered an upside in prices as there was news of a fire breakout at one of the U. S. refineries. NYMEX crude ended the day at $ 59.16 after it rose by $ 2.82.
Natural Gas declined by Rs. 9.7 and closed the day at Rs. 195.5 on MCX.
Nigerian militants said on Monday they had blown up two oil and gas pipelines in the Niger Delta and would blockade waterways in the region in an effort to disrupt energy exports from the OPEC country.
In the United States, an explosion on Sunday rocked Sunoco's oil refinery in Pennsylvania, setting a fire and disrupting production from the 178,000-barrel-per-day plant heading into the peak summer driving season.
A poll of analysts ahead of U. S. weekly inventory data forecast a 700,000-barrel crude stocks drawdown last week, a 1.0 million-barrel drop in gasoline supplies and an 800,000-barrel build in distillate stocks.
New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures ended slightly higher on Monday, backed by a strong rally in crude and concerns about a potential storm near Florida despite moderate weather forecasts and concerns about growing supplies, traders said.
Crude oil futures rose to $59/barrel yesterday, we recommend buying crude oil futures at dip of a percent as stability in financial markets and militants in Nigeria disrupting production are likely to support the prices. The outlook for energy complex remains positive for the day.
Crude prices gave a filled green candle in short-term downtrend, a very positive sign for crude. Crude looks to maintain its price above 2850 levels. Thus, one can remain long in crude above 2850, targeting 2890 and 2915 on the upside.
Natural Gas has given a long red candle during the day, negative for Natural Gas. However, it took support at 196 levels (50% Retracement). If Natural gas maintains support of 196 then prices can see an uptick till next upside level of 203. However, if Natural Gas breaks 196 levels then next support could be at 189-190 levels.