Crude futures are trading relatively unchanged since our previous analysis, consolidating above $70/bbl following an OPEC meeting unfolding as anticipated. OPEC kept production unchanged and the major oil producing nations seem comfortable with crude’s recent trading range. OPEC’s content with present price is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy since investors will anticipate OPEC to take whatever actions it deems necessary to kept price within a specific range. That being said, crude has shown little reaction to the multiple inflection points experienced by our trend lines.

The non-reaction is a bit odd, yet we could see volatility pick up once China releases its Industrial Production data this evening EST. China’s strong level of production amid the economic crisis along with stockpiling as been a main driving force behind crude’s rapid recovery. Therefore, any important economic data coming from China should have a noticeable impact on the price of crude, particularly if the numbers surprise in either direction. The EUR/USD and Gold have experienced key technical breakouts to the topside recently. These aggressive movements are welcomed by crude bulls due to positive correlations. Furthermore, we received the second large shortage in weekly crude inventories in the past month. The large decline in supply coupled with strong Chinese data and further broad-based depreciation of the Dollar could help send crude beyond August highs.

Technically speaking, crude only has a few more tight uptrend lines to brave through before experiencing exciting movements to the topside. After all, crude is only a stone’s throw away from August highs and the psychological $75/bbl level. As for the downside, crude has our 1st tier uptrend line and the highly psychological $75/level to fall back on. We believe a breaking point is approaching, and thus far the behavior of crude’s correlations are in favor of its uptrend.

Price: $71.64/bbl

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