In crisis, Polish workers abroad feel the pull of home
Warsaw - Michal Sikorski senses the fear in his dwindling community of Polish workers in Iceland as the global financial crisis spreads.
Once drawn in by Iceland's construction and service industries, Poles left by the hundreds in recent weeks as work dried up. Then, the country's financial collapse threatened to wipe out the money they had made in search of a better life.
"People are afraid they'll lose their savings," said Sikorski, a diplomat at the Polish consulate in Reykjavik. "In Poland, maybe they'll earn a bit less but at least they will be with family, in their country."
Some 2 million Poles went to work in other EU countries - notably Britain and Ireland - since Poland joined the European Union in 2004. Part of that mass migration is now set to reverse, signalling the human impact of the credit crunch and looming global recession.
The crisis hasn't hit Poland hard, at least not yet. But it's clear that Polish immigrants abroad are losing jobs and increasingly returning home, where the economy seems more stable and unemployment is at historic lows.
Jan Mokrzycki, chairman of the Federation of Poles in Great Britain, said fear is growing, especially among Poles who got to Britain in the last year and have less job security.
"Right now there hasn't been a flowing river of people returning to Poland, but decidedly more have decided to return or are thinking about it," he said.
In Norway and Iceland, most Polish immigrants are opting to return home, officials say, with few taking their chances job hunting elsewhere in Europe.
"Nobody is currently saying they'll go back to England," said Aleksandra Eriksen, of Norwegian consulting company Polish Connection in Oslo. "If they are returning, they're returning to Poland."
Many Poles in Norway have recently lost their jobs or have been laid off, and they're now asking how to make the move, Eriksen said. Some of the companies that hired them have gone bankrupt.
"We have a lot of companies calling us to say they're taking a break for the next four or five months, and they will see how the economic situation looks in the spring," Eriksen said.
In Iceland, some 2,000 Poles have left in the past several weeks, Sikorski said. A recent meeting on the topic drew some 300 people, he said, and most wanted to leave.
Sikorski noticed the effects when banks in Iceland no longer allowed exchanging currency or doing money transfers.
International money transfers were stopped since Iceland's banking system collapsed, amid a financial crisis in the country that saw its stock market close for several days and trading suspended in the Icelandic krona.
Poles working abroad have contributed to the ex-communist nation's growing prosperity, sending home money worth more than 8 billion dollars in 2007 while helping cut the jobless rate.
Whether returnees will strain the Polish economy, eastern Europe's biggest, depends largely on how many come home.
Polish sociologist and migration expert Artur Niewrzedowski said he expects some 200,000 to 300,000 immigrants to return, but that many would likely find work in infrastructure projects, including stadiums and roads for the Euro 2012 football championship.
Any rise in unemployment would be small and temporary, he predicted. But the rise in Polish wages, a symbol of growing prosperity, would probably slow down.
"The people who worked abroad shouldn't have problems here because Poland has still an enormous need for workers," said Justyna Frelak of the Institute of Public Affairs, an independent Warsaw think tank.
With Poland's economy headed for slower growth in 2009, coming home early could pay off.
"The first to make the move will have the best opportunities," said Marcin Kopaczynski, an analyst at Austrian bank RZB group. (dpa)