Forex Update

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

Gold climbed back to retest the highly psychological $900/oz level as anticipated. The rally is falling short with the precious metal experiencing consolidation.

Though gold managed to get past our 1st tier downtrend line, our 2nd tier isn't far away. In our eyes, gold broke the uptrend's back on April 2nd.

Therefore, the precious metal would need to accomplish some incredible fundamental feats to reinstate the uptrend.

Hence, we view the precious metal's recent rally as a healthy retest of a critical, defeated psychological support. We wouldn't be surprised to see the negative correlation with U. S. equities to come into full swing with the S&P futures performing well.

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

Crude futures have experienced some eye-popping volatility over the last couple sessions, fluttering between our trend lines. The indecisive movements reflect investor uncertainty concerning the economy as a whole.

While investors are not willing to give up on the uptrend, the downtrend is still sitting in the driver's seat with investors unwilling to commit above our 2nd tier downtrend line.

The highly psychological $50/bbl area continues to play a lead role as prices are gravitating here. Naturally, the key driving force behind the demand structure of crude is the overall health of the U. S. economy.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The S&P futures are reversing course premarket on Tuesday after the U. S. released disappointing PPI and Retail Sales data points. The PPI numbers show the collapse in consumption resulting from the economic downturn is taking its toll on producer prices.

As a result, the fear of deflation is creeping back into the picture, signaling the improvement in PPI over the past two months may have just been a head-fake.

The Retail Sales numbers send the same signal, which raises concern that the concept of an economic recovery as a whole may be a head-fake.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are perking up pre-market on Tuesday after America's economic data disappointed. As a result, the 30 Year futures are flexing their negative correlation with U. S. equities.

Though the 30 Year futures have bounced from our 1st tier downtrend line, they haven't made any game-changing moves to awaken from the depths of their present downtrend.

The lack of follow through to the upside paints a distorted picture. On one hand, we could be witnessing insufficient demand in the bond market to compensate for the massive supply of treasuries created to fund the government's stimulus measures despite the Fed's use of quantitative easing.

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