Forex Update

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

Crude futures are recovering Wednesday morning after Tuesday's selloff in reaction to disappointing PPI and Retail Sales data. Yesterday's downturn was not significant and crude has risen back above the highly psychological $50/bbl.

The indecisive movements reflect investor uncertainty concerning the economy as a whole. While investors are not willing to give up on the uptrend, the downtrend is still sitting in the driver's seat with investors unwilling to commit above our 2nd tier downtrend line.

The highly psychological $50/bbl area continues to play a lead role as prices are gravitating here. Naturally, the key driving force behind the demand structure of crude is the overall health of the U. S. economy.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures made a nice move to the upside yesterday as U. S. equities headed south in reaction to negative economic data. However, once again, the
30 Year futures failed to make a game-changing move to the upside. The lack of follow through to the upside paints a distorted picture.

On one hand, we could be witnessing insufficient demand in the bond market to compensate for the massive supply of treasuries created to fund the government's stimulus measures despite the Fed's use of quantitative easing.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

The S&P futures experienced considerable losses Tuesday after the U. S. released disappointing PPI and Retail Sales data. The futures weakened below April 4 highs and our 3rd tier downtrend line before popping back above the trend line Wednesday morning.

A surprising declining PPI reignites fears of deflation while the negative Retail Sales number reinforces the fact that U. S. consumption is buckling under the pressure of the economic downturn.

Yesterday's data points raise a red flag concerning the possibility of a head fake in economic data and shows the worst of the economic crisis may not be behind us after all.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The USD/JPY is still stuck around 100 as the highly-psychological level is proving to be as difficult to overcome as investors could have anticipated.

The surprisingly positive Core Machinery Orders coupled with Aso's aggressive stimulus package is countering the recent strength in America's economy.

Therefore, the USD/JPY finds itself at an important crossroads as our uptrend line reaches an inflection point with our 3rd tier downtrend line.

The importance of the moment is difficult to express since all of this year's progress made by the USD/JPY to tackle 100 is reaching a climactic point. Will the uptrend prevail or fall under the sword of the monstrous downtrend?

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The Cable is making vast strides to the upside, positioning itself for a breakout opportunity as it continues to bask in the glory of this month's all-around positive economic data from Britain. The GBP/USD is battling with our 2nd tier uptrend line as we speak.

If the currency pair can climb above April and February highs we could witness some large near-term gains as it looks to tackle the highly psychological 1.50 level.

The relative strength of the Pound is reflected in the freefall of the EUR/GBP. However, we wouldn't be surprised to see the EUR/GBP find some solid near-term support, meaning that if the GBP/USD does break out, the rally could experience some profit-taking relatively quickly.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

Though yesterday's rally in the EUR/USD made some interesting strides by edging above 4/9 highs and our 1st tier downtrend line, investors are taking profits Tuesday. The volume was still light yesterday due to the Easter holiday and a lack of economic data.

However, we could see currencies come back to life today with the U. S. releasing retail sales and PPI. Even though the EUR/GBP could experience more near-term losses, it appears the currency pair should find some support soon.

Therefore, the EUR/USD may experience considerable strength around our 1st tier uptrend line and 1.3192 support, if the currency pair should reach this level.

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