Bajaj Finance Share Price Target at Rs 1,180: ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities has upgraded Bajaj Finance to a BUY rating, revising its target price upward to Rs 1,180 from Rs 1,040, implying an 18% upside from the current market price of Rs 1,000. The brokerage house underscores the non-banking financial company's strategic pivot toward customer-centric operations, leveraging artificial intelligence to accelerate market share expansion and profitability. With consolidated assets under management reaching Rs 4.62 lakh crore and ambitious plans to double its customer base to 20-22 crore by FY30, Bajaj Finance is positioned to capitalize on GST-led consumption tailwinds while maintaining disciplined asset quality. The valuation methodology applies 3.8x FY28E book value for standalone operations, with subsidiaries valued at Rs 119 per share, reflecting confidence in sustained 22-24% profit-after-tax growth through FY30.
ICICI Securities Elevates Bajaj Finance to BUY Amid Strategic Transformation
In a decisive upgrade issued December 18, 2025, ICICI Securities has transitioned its stance on Bajaj Finance from Hold to BUY, establishing a revised 12-month target of Rs 1,180 against the prevailing market quotation of Rs 1,000. The research house emphasizes the non-banking finance titan's comprehensive transformation from product-centric to customer-centric architecture, a recalibration expected to unlock substantial cross-selling opportunities and deepen wallet penetration across its sprawling retail franchise. The firm's consolidated asset base has climbed to approximately Rs 4.62 lakh crore, underpinned by robust return metrics including 19% return on equity and exceeding 4% return on assets over sustained periods.
Customer-Centricity Drives Ambitious Market Share Expansion Blueprint
Bajaj Finance's strategic pivot centers on intensifying customer engagement rather than merely proliferating product lines, a paradigm shift analysts believe will catalyze exponential growth trajectories. The company currently serves over 10 crore customers and harbors ambitions to scale this figure to between 20-22 crore by fiscal 2030, simultaneously elevating product penetration per customer from 6.05 to a bandwidth of 6.5-7.5. Digital infrastructure enhancement, AI-powered personalization algorithms, and multi-channel distribution networks constitute the operational bedrock expected to propel monthly disbursements from Rs 800 crore to Rs 8,000 crore—a tenfold amplification. This acceleration should sustain assets under management growth north of 20% annually while driving profit-after-tax expansion at a 22-24% compound annual growth rate through the first half of FY26 to FY30, positioning credit market share to vault from 2.32% to 3.2-3.5%.
GST 2.0 Reforms Fuel Consumption-Led Credit Momentum
The impending rollout of GST 2.0 structural reforms presents a material tailwind for Bajaj Finance's lending ecosystem, as reduced indirect taxation burdens enhance affordability matrices and stimulate discretionary spending velocity. Early indications from festive-period transaction volumes suggest consumption-driven credit appetite is acquiring durable characteristics rather than remaining episodic, according to ICICI Securities' assessment. This consumption upswing, reinforced by favorable policy frameworks and improving sentiment indices, positions the non-banking financial entity to amplify disbursements while penetrating deeper into its diversified spectrum of credit and fee-income product suites. The brokerage anticipates this macro alignment will sustain top-line momentum throughout the forecast horizon.
Artificial Intelligence Architecture Recalibrates Risk-Return Paradigm
Bajaj Finance is architecting what ICICI Securities characterizes as a low-risk organizational framework by embedding artificial intelligence capabilities across credit underwriting, operational workflows, fraud detection, and regulatory compliance infrastructure. AI-enabled automation of data preparation, customer segmentation protocols, and impact simulation modeling is projected to compress risk analysis timelines from the current 10-15 day cycle to approximately one day, while simultaneously reducing operational and servicing costs by 50% by FY30. These technological integrations are expected to shave 15-20 basis points from credit cost structures, enhancing both resilience and scalability. Asset quality parameters reflect this disciplined approach, with gross non-performing assets anticipated to remain below 1.2% and net non-performing assets under 0.4%, representing an improvement from the FY26 target band of 1.2-1.4% and 0.4-0.5% respectively.
Valuation Methodology and Financial Trajectory
The research house employs a price-to-book valuation framework, rolling forward estimates to FY28 and applying a 3.8x multiple to projected book value for standalone operations. Subsidiary entities are assigned a cumulative valuation of Rs 119 per share, culminating in the Rs 1,180 target price that supersedes the previous Rs 1,040 objective. Financial projections embed net interest income expansion at 21.3% for FY28E, reaching Rs 81,052 crore, while net profit is forecast to climb to Rs 31,830 crore, representing 22.5% year-on-year growth. Operating efficiency metrics are expected to improve progressively, with the cost-to-income ratio compressing from 34% in FY24 to 31.4% by FY28E.
| Financial Metric (Rs Crore) | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | 36,244.8 | 44,912.7 | 53,998.1 | 66,823.6 | 81,052.1 |
| Net Profit | 14,451.2 | 16,779.5 | 20,061.1 | 25,978.8 | 31,830.3 |
| Return on Equity (%) | 22.1 | 19.4 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 20.2 |
| Return on Assets (%) | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| GNPA (%) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| NNPA (%) | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Source: ICICI Securities Research
Investment Targets and Price Trajectories
Current Market Price: Rs 1,000
Target Price: Rs 1,180
Upside Potential: 18%
Investment Horizon: 12 months
Recommendation: BUY (upgraded from Hold)
The price target is predicated on FY28E earnings multiples, with standalone business operations valued at 3.8 times book value and an aggregate Rs 119 per share attributed to subsidiary contributions. Earnings per share are projected to escalate from Rs 32.3 in FY26E to Rs 51.2 by FY28E, supporting price-to-earnings multiple compression from 31x to 19x over this duration.
Risk Factors and Potential Headwinds
ICICI Securities identifies two principal risk vectors that could potentially derail the bullish thesis. First, a growth-margin trade-off could materialize if liquidity conditions tighten materially, compressing net interest margins and constraining lending velocity. Second, elevated delinquency levels across certain portfolio segments could pressure provisioning requirements and erode earnings quality, particularly if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or consumption patterns soften unexpectedly. Monitoring these variables will prove critical for investors assessing downside scenarios against the base-case growth trajectory.
Shareholding Architecture and Institutional Positioning
The promoter group maintains a stable 54.7% equity stake as of September 2025, providing governance continuity and strategic alignment. Foreign institutional investors have incrementally expanded their holdings from 20.8% in December 2024 to 22.0% by September 2025, signaling growing international confidence in the growth narrative. Conversely, domestic institutional investors marginally reduced exposure from 15.1% to 13.4% over the same timeframe, while public shareholding hovers around 8.8%. This ownership structure suggests robust institutional backing while maintaining founder control over strategic direction.
