USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.23.09

The USD/JPY has bounced back above our 1st tier downtrend and uptrend lines in reaction to a very negative Business Survey Index from Japan. The Survey indicates the Japanese economy continues to fall off a cliff, weakening relative to the U. S. economy.

As a result, America takes another step ahead in the battle of the comparative health of the two economies. Both Japan and America are implementing quantitative easing, though America's is more extreme in relation to GDP.

However, the USD/JPY is showing investors believe Japan may need to commit more funds to quantitative easing in order to counter the country's severe economic contraction.

On the other hand, the U. S. will release its Final GDP number this week and who knows what other trick cards the government will pull from its sleeve.

Therefore, we may witness the continuation of an indecisive USD/JPY with such high uncertainty in both countries concerning economic performance and monetary/fiscal policy policies.

The USD/JPY is presently sitting right at our 2nd tier downtrend line with the 3rd tier hanging in the distance. Hence, the downtrend holds the upper hand until the currency pair can eclipse March highs and re-approach the critical 100 level.

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 96.65, 97.49, 98.11, and 99.00. To the downside, our 95.92 resistance turns support while we hold our supports of 95.08, 94.57, and 93.73. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 96.66.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.23.09

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