The USD/JPY has battled back above our 1st tier uptrend line, and is trading just below our 2nd tier downtrend line as the trend lines approach their inflection point. The USD/JPY’s rise is impressive considering the large declines taking place in gold and the EUR/USD. Investors are paying more attention to the worse than expected retail sales from Japan late Tuesday coupled with relative stability in the S&P futures.

The contrast of a weak Japanese economy with a comparatively stable American economy is leading investors to favor the Dollar over the Yen. Meanwhile, the inflection point of our trend lines could signal a large movement approaching. The USD/JPY has been bobbling between our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines for a few days now, indicating they have importance for the immediate-term.

Japan will release its monthly industrial production number later today. Analysts are anticipated a sizable decline from the previous release. However, should industrial production come in weaker than expected and the S&P futures experience profit taking, the USD/JPY could decide to head south again.

On the other hand, if tonight’s release is worse than expected and the S&P futures continue to consolidate, the USD/JPY could experience more near-term strength since investors would likely favor the Dollar over the Yen again. Meanwhile, investors should keep a watch on volume considering an inflection point is occurring.

Present Price: 94.94

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