UN court to decide on warrant against Sudan's al-Bashir Wednesday

International Criminal CourtAmsterdam/Khartoum  - The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague will on Wednesday announce what is seen as perhaps its most important decision amid fears of a deterioration of the situation in Sudan and threats from African nations to withdraw its recognition of the fledgling United Nations court.

Judges of the fledgling ICC are due to announce Wednesday whether it will issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on charges of crimes against humanity, genocide and war crimes in Sudan's western Darfur region since 2003.

ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo last July requested an arrest warrant, saying the evidence was stacked against al-Bashir.

The prosecutor on Tuesday said he has more than two dozen witnesses who will testify that the Sudanese leader managed and controlled the campaign to eliminate ethnic African tribes in the region that rose up against the government.

The Argentinian-born prosecutor on Tuesday told journalists he did not know what the court would decide, saying "I do not talk to the judges." Moreno-Ocampo said he was prepared for several scenarios, including one in which the ICC would accept his request to prosecute al-Bashir partially.

Moreno-Ocampo on Tuesday accused Bashir of provoking disturbances against the court. He said al-Bashir has mobilized the military, militias, intelligence serve and justice and foreign affairs ministries in Sudan to respond "spontaneously" to Wednesday's decision.

In the event that a warrant is issued, al-Bashir would become the first sitting president to be indicted. He is the most senior figure pursued by the ICC since it was set up in
2002.

Al-Bashir denies the charges. His government rejects the court's jurisdiction and has warned it will terminate its relationship with the United Nations if a warrant is issued.

According to UN estimates, around 35,000 people have been killed in Darfur since 2003 and a further 300,000 have died from hunger and disease and some 2.7 million displaced. The government in Khartoum rejects these figures and claims of genocide.

Newspaper reports in Sudan on Tuesday quoted a Libyan official as reiterating that African Union (AU) member states act against such a move.

Sudan Tribune newspaper quoted Libya's minister for Africa affairs, Abdul Salam al-Tereyki as saying that up to 37 AU states would terminate its support for the ICC. Libya currently chairs the AU. Last month, AU Commission chairman Jean Ping criticized the ICC as biased against African countries.

The Sudanese government had asked the AU, the Arab League and China to stop the warrant being issued. The AU called on the ICC to postpone issuing a warrant to allow for peace negotiations between the warring parties in Sudan.

Several members of the United Nations Security Council, which commissioned the ICC to investigate the Darfur case, do not want to see al-Bashir in court," according to Professor Jon Abbink of the African Studies Institute at Leiden University in the Netherlands.

"China does not want the world to know it sold much of the weapons used in Darfur," he told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

Diplomats, humanitarian workers and African and international peacekeepers in Sudan were on Tuesday however that the Khartoum government would keep its promise to guarantee their protection.

UN peacekeeping chief Alain le Roy has said he expects "some violence" in Sudan after the court decision but could not predict the level of violence.

Peacekeeping troops from the UN and the AU stationed in Darfur would continue their patrols on Wednesday, he said. Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has promised to protect international peacekeeping missions in Darfur and South Sudan.

Abbink told dpa that if the ICC issued a warrant against al- Bashir, "The conflict will undoubtedly be intensified."

"He (al-Bashir) will also strengthen his position internally and gather more support form the Arab League and Muslim countries in the short run," he added.

A postponement might also count in the Sudanese leader's favour, according to Abbink. "Sudan would regard postponement as a victory. It tells the government it can sabotage international legal processes and impose its will upon the global community." dpa

General: