Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.23.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures have calmed down after their historical run last week. We're witnessing consolidation as investors await results from upcoming Treasury auctions to see whether yields really fall as much as anticipated. China announced it will continue to hold confidence in U. S.

Treasuries, most likely due to the U. S. government's defense of its debt via quantitative easing. However, there are rumblings China plans to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, implying the Chinese government may slow down its purchase rate of U. S assets.

The confusion is halting the rise of U. S. Treasuries since it is uncertain whether America's funds designated for quantitative easing will be able to counter the declining demand globally.

As a result, the 30 Year futures remain below our near-term uptrend and downtrend lines, implying the futures still have work to do as far as developing a lasting uptrend is concerned. Regardless, the movement last week was significant, and we should see the return of volatility this week with our trend lines reaching an inflection point while U. S. government reveals its plans for dealing with toxic assets and financial regulations.

Fundamentally, we see resistance of 132.39 with additional resistances hanging at 132.98 and 133.36. To the downside, we find supports of 131.34, 130.95, 130.53, and 130.11. The 30 Year Treasury Bond futures are currently trading at 131 17.5.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.23.09

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