Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.18.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures headed lower yesterday, exercising their negative correlation with U. S. equities. However, the 30 Year futures have caught themselves just above March lows in an effort to `hold the fort' so to speak.

Despite the resilience of the 30 Year to stay within a reasonable range, the declining purchases of U. S. treasuries by China will weigh down on the futures for some time. China is running a lower trade surplus due to plummeting exports, resulting in declining foreign exchange reserves.

Therefore, China is slowing its purchases of U. S. debt and diversifying its reserves in an effort to decrease their reliance on any one investment. This development creates a downward hand on the price of the 30 Year and raises the interest rate to attract more investors.

The 30 Year futures are holding onto their lows right now in anticipation of a decision from the Fed on whether to proceed with quantitative easing. Quantitative easing could provide a temporary boost to the price of the 30 Year futures.

However, the downtrend still holds strong and will continue to do so until the futures can climb through our 2nd tier downtrend line.

Fundamentally, we see resistance of 125.34 with additional resistances hanging at 125.75, 126.08, and 126.72.

To the downside, we find supports of 124.98 and 124.58.

The 30 Year Treasury Bond futures are currently trading at 125 05.0.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.18.09

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