Bangkok  - Thailand's exports are likely to hit 173.2 billion dollars in 2009, a 1.6 per cent decline on last year's performance, media reports said Wednesday.

With economic growth and import demand on the decline in the US, Europe, Japan and in other South-east Asian nations, Thailand is expected to experience a fall in exports for the first time since 2001, according to a study compiled by The Centre for International Trade Studies, part of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

In the worst-case scenario Thailand's exports in 2009 could fall 6.4 per cent, but a more likely outcome will be a 1.6 per cent decline, said Aat Pisanwanich, director of the centre.

"Sagging exports will cause difficulties for many businesses, while unemployment could increase because many industries, particularly high-tech industries, would face lower orders and that would lead to businesses closing down," Aat told The Nation newspaper.

International trade is Thailand's chief engine of growth, accounting for more than 65 per cent of the kingdom's gross domestic product (GDP).

If exports decline 1.6 per cent this year, imports will shrink by 6.7 per cent to 167.2 billion dollars, Aat predicted.

Although that would leave Thailand with a trade surplus of 5.9 billion dollars, it would also mean a current-account deficit of 6.28 billion, he said. (dpa)