Tata Steel share price closed 1.2 percent higher on Thursday as research house Jefferies upgraded target price for steel major to Rs 200. Tata Steel has gained in the recent weeks as Indian government's policies favor local steel companies. The demand for steel is also strong in global markets. Tata Steel stock is also looking strong on technical charts.

Tata Steel Gains Jefferies' Confidence Amid Sector Revival and Policy Tailwinds

Tata Steel has emerged as a compelling bet in India’s steel landscape, driven by renewed policy momentum and cost discipline. Global investment house Jefferies has reiterated its bullish stance on the stock, raising its price target to Rs 200. The firm's optimism stems from India’s proactive protectionist measures—particularly the imposition of a temporary safeguard duty on flat steel imports. This has revived domestic pricing power, cushioning companies like Tata Steel from global volatility and spurring earnings growth. As the government prepares to reassess this policy by Q3 2025, Tata Steel finds itself firmly back in investors’ crosshairs.

Jefferies Reaffirms ‘Buy’ Call on Tata Steel

Jefferies has maintained its ‘buy’ recommendation on Tata Steel, elevating its target price to Rs 200 per share, signaling robust confidence in the stock’s upside potential. The brokerage’s optimism stems from an improving industry backdrop and the company’s strategic financial repositioning.

Valuation remains central to Jefferies' thesis. The firm considers Tata Steel attractively priced relative to sector peers, particularly when factoring in recent policy support that has restored profitability across Indian steelmakers.

Safeguard Duty Triggers Sector Recovery

In a bid to protect Indian steelmakers from a flood of underpriced foreign imports, the government enacted a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports in April 2025. The duty, effective for 200 days, comes in response to a sharp correction in domestic steel prices—a 15% slide between June and December 2024—largely driven by a spike in Chinese steel inflows.

This intervention has already begun reshaping market dynamics. Year-to-date, domestic steel prices have rebounded approximately 14%, with companies like Tata Steel benefiting from better pricing power and improving margins.

Review of Policy Likely in Q3 FY26

The impact of the safeguard duty will be reviewed by the government around August or September 2025. Analysts believe the short-term policy could pave the way for a more permanent structure if domestic players can demonstrate consistent operational improvements.

The continuation or recalibration of this duty will be pivotal for stock valuations, especially for industry leaders like Tata Steel who are regaining lost ground after a volatile FY24.

Tata Steel Posts Strong Q4 FY25 Numbers

Tata Steel delivered a robust financial performance in the March quarter, with consolidated net profit jumping over two-fold to Rs 1,200.88 crore—a sharp rebound from Rs 554.56 crore in Q4 FY24.

While the company’s total income stood at Rs 56,679.11 crore, it slightly trailed the Rs 58,863.22 crore reported in the same quarter last year. However, operational efficiency and disciplined expense management drove bottom-line growth. Total expenditure declined to Rs 54,167.61 crore from Rs 56,496.88 crore a year earlier.

Annual Turnaround: From Loss to Profit in FY25

For the full financial year, Tata Steel reported a net profit of Rs 3,173.78 crore, marking a dramatic turnaround from the Rs 4,909.61 crore loss in the previous fiscal.

This recovery underscores the company’s ability to recalibrate operations, manage cost pressures, and capitalize on improving domestic demand. Jefferies believes such resilience will be a defining trait for Indian steelmakers in FY26 as well.

Strategic Takeaway for Investors

With steel prices on an upward trajectory, policy tailwinds in place, and a leaner cost structure, Tata Steel is positioned to outperform within the metals space. The revised target of Rs 200 per share offers a tangible upside from current levels, provided macro headwinds remain contained.

As Jefferies asserts, the key to sustained investor interest will lie in monitoring the outcome of the safeguard duty review and tracking quarterly margin trends. For now, the winds appear favorable.