The S&P futures remain stuck in neutral after worse than expected Core Durable Goods Orders data was counterbalanced by an impressive New Home Sales number. Investors are also digesting the combination of weak Japanese exports and strong German Ifo Business Climate reports. The S&P futures are at a crossroads again and investors aren’t taking sides until they see tomorrow’s Prelim GDP number.

We notice the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, gold, and crude are holding onto their respective uptrend lines in anticipation of tomorrow’s wave of important data. Speaking of correlations, the Dollar has experienced a broad-based appreciation, increasing the downward pressure on the S&P futures. However, the S&P futures have proven resilient despite the Dollar’s appreciation. A better than expected GDP number could buck the Dollar’s appreciation and send the S&P futures charging higher, and vice-versa. Although, investors should take note of the negative behavior of the S&P’s correlations and tread with caution over the next 24-48 hours since we anticipate heightened volatility.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are still trading comfortably above the highly psychological 1000 level. Therefore, a pullback resulting from a weak GDP number would likely hit a temporary cushion around 1000 and 8/21 lows. On the other hand, separation from 1000 gives the S&P the mobility to log more significant movements to the topside should the data impress. In addition to Prelim GDP the U. S. will release weekly Unemployment Claims tomorrow. Unemployment Claims revealed an uncomfortable increase from their previous release. If the trend continues and Unemployment Claims surpass 600k again, this could place more downward pressure on the S&P futures since investors will become more concerned about future consumption and economic growth.

Price: 1025.75

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