S&P Daily Commentary for 4.30.09

The S&P futures finally made a commitment to new 2009 highs, and we view the development as a significant step fundamentally. Although the futures still need to face the highly psychological 900 level, the S&P had really been struggling with making yesterday's key move. Additionally, new 2009 highs came despite a disappointing Prelim GDP number, showing the worst has been priced into equities for now. Therefore, the upwards momentum is for real and it appears the economic stabilization process is safe for now.

Investors got more economic data today. Although weekly unemployment claims were slightly better than expected, they remain at elevated levels. Furthermore, we saw a slight downturn in employment cost and personal spending, showing disposable income continues to get hit by the economic downturn. However, we got a very nice Chicago PMI, which is the most encouraging data release we've seen all week. Hence, the bright spots in data continue to appear.

Not only are investors looking beyond weak GDP data, they are also shrugging off the official bankruptcy of Chrysler. Investors are buying on the news and it appears the bankruptcy has already been priced in. Conversely, we should meditate on the fact that Chrysler's bankruptcy should accelerate the unemployment level and take another bite out of consumption.

Regardless, the momentum is in the upwards direction with the highly-anticipated stress test results coming to late on Monday. Additionally, we will see ISM Manufacturing tomorrow morning.

Fundamentally, we find supports of 877.25, 872.50, 866.50, 861.25, and 857 with key psychological resistance waiting at 900. The S&P futures are currently trading at 884.50.

 

 

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