S&P Daily Commentary for 3.20.09
Even though all of the equity correlations are indicating a furious rally in the S&P futures, investors are debating whether to send the index past the highly psychological 800 level.
Investors are still digesting Wednesday's huge move from the Federal Reserve, and are uncertain whether it spells recovery or pending disaster for the U. S. economy. Financials are trading down for the most part while technologies rally.
The largest concern for investors is that the quantitative easing will result in hyperinflation, or higher prices coupled with a withering economy. The Dollar has weakened significantly across the board while commodities such as gold, grains, and crude are rising.
Meanwhile, the U. S. reported stabilizing PPI and CPIs this week, showing inflation could be coming. Now, the question becomes whether a depreciated Dollar can stimulate demand from Europe, Britain, Japan and China to ignite U. S. manufacturing and production.
U. S. equities are showing concern over the latter, so the near-term path of the S&P futures is in limbo. While we are tempted to be optimistic on the uptrend for the futures, once cannot be certain at this point until the S&P commits to an 800+ reality.
The U. S. will not release any economic data today. However, all ears will be on Fed Chairman Bernanke as he addresses the public today. Investors seek further clarity in the quantitative easing action and could rally if Bernanke provides it.
Fundamentally, we find resistance of 789.25 with additional resistances hanging at 794.5, 804, 812.75, 818.75, and 829. To the downside, we see supports of 782.5, 775, 765.25, and 758.25. The S&P futures are currently trading at 788.