Race and the US vote: Blacks confident, even if McCain wins

Race and the US vote: Blacks confident, even if McCain winsWashington - On Martin Luther King Avenue, in the Anacostia neighbourhood of the nation's capital, the mood before Tuesday's US presidential elections is upbeat and confident.

National polls show the black neighbourhood's favourite, Democrat Barack Obama, 47, ahead over Republican John McCain, 72. And while African Americans there say an Obama presidency would be the ultimate "melting pot" image, they dismiss the suggestion there would be anger, or even riots, if somehow McCain were to win.

"Countrywide raced riots? Why? I don't see it," says Charles Crawford, 50, an out-of-work electrician. "All the things we've gone through in this country to build bridges ... Why would we do that?"

Obama, who could become the country's first African-American president, has run his campaign in what's been called a "post-racial" atmosphere mostly free of racial overtones.

The issue has reared sporadically, such as when he cut his ties to Chicago pastor Jeremiah Wright over anti-white remarks from the pulpit.

Anticipating attacks aimed at making him seem un-American, Obama warned supporters in July that his rival's campaign would try to "make you scared of me" by saying ""he doesn't look like all of those other presidents on the dollar bills'."

As the race tightened in August and September, pundits blamed Obama's failure to do better, despite outspending and out-organizing McCain, on race along with his youth and inexperience.

McCain's attempts to portray Obama as an outsider, an unknown and friend of terrorists were seen by some as a covert strumming of racist fears.

Now that Obama has an average 6-percentage-point lead in the polls thanks to the financial upheaval, some worry whether the results are misleading, and whether voters will fall prey to latent racism and vote differently.

Such behaviour is called the Bradley effect, after African- American Tom Bradley lost the 1982 California governor's race although he was ahead in voter polls.

While the reasons are still disputed, much has changed since then. Every year, more black politicians are elected by majority white districts, including nearly one-third of the nation's current 622 black state legislators, the Washington Post reported.

Still, frequent mention of how the Bradley effect could give victory to McCain, who has been intensely courting white working- class voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, has provoked fringe speculation about a violent reaction.

"If McCain wins, look for a full-fledged race and class war," wrote Fatimah Ali, a Philadelphia Daily News columnist. Apart from that and a few off-handed references to "drama" after an Obama loss by bloggers and cable TV pundits, there is little evidence to support such fears.

Eleanor Holmes Norton, 71, a veteran of the civil rights struggle who represents the largely black District of Columbia in the US House of Representatives, says that "nobody knows what race will mean" as voters make their marks on Tuesday, but does not believe it will be an incendiary factor.

"The racial issues here are so clear, they're boring," she said at her office in Anacostia. "For African Americans, it's perhaps a source of particular pride. (But) what we see in Barack is (someone who will) save us from free- fall. Skin colour does not have anything to do with it. His personal qualities do."

Analysts like Daniella Gibbs Leger, vice president for communications at the liberal think tank Centre for American Progress Action Fund, doubt a Bradley effect on election day.

"In my opinion, any people who vote against Obama because of his race will be neutralized by increased youth and African American turnout," Leger said in an e-mail interview.

There are of course voters who believe Obama is not truly "American," with his Kenyan ancestry and youth in Hawaii and Indonesia.

But there are also people who are colour-blind, like Viktor Chernomordik, a Russian immigrant in his 50s in Rockville, Maryland, who does not really think of Obama as African American.

Residents of Anacostia who had come to an open house held by the congresswoman were philosophical about the prospect of an Obama loss.

"If he doesn't win, either one is better than (US President George W) Bush," quipped Selia Koroma, in her 30s.

Her friend Felicia Moore, president of her own company Technical Solutions, agreed.

"If he doesn't win, the bottom line is, history was made... and within the next 20 years, a non-white person will become president," she said.

Brandon Briscoe, 18, said he would "not be angry at all if McCain wins."

"I believe this year, it's gonna be fair," Briscoe said, referring to the protests after the 2000 election that was decided in the US Supreme Court. "If McCain wins, it was a fair fight." (dpa)

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